Elizabeth Regis

Global Weekly Overview

Week of May 25–29 

Markets remain resilient despite ongoing inflationary and geopolitical challenges

Markets ended the week on a more constructive note, supported by moderating oil prices and strong corporate earnings. However, inflation remains above central bank targets, while geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global economic outlook.

United States

Markets advanced, supported by lower oil prices and S&P 500 earnings growth of 28.4%, the strongest pace since 2021. Inflation remains elevated, while consumer confidence continues to face pressure.

Europe

The ECB remains cautious amid still-elevated inflation. Although consumer confidence improved, economic sentiment remains weak and core inflation continues to run above target.

Japan

Retail sales and employment exceeded expectations. Consumption remains resilient, supported by government stimulus measures and a strong labor market.

China

Industrial profits increased 24.7%, driven by technology, electronics, and energy, reflecting a more favorable recovery in strategic sectors.


Argentina

Inflation expectations continue to moderate. Authorities anticipate monthly inflation below April levels, easing concerns over exchange-rate pressures.

Brazil

GDP exceeded expectations, supported by investment and consumer spending. However, producer prices continue to reflect pressures stemming from the global energy environment.

Mexico

Banxico lowered its 2026 growth forecast. Nevertheless, exports and foreign direct investment reached record levels, supporting economic activity.

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“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

  • In the United States, manufacturing PMI will be released 06/01
  • In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 06/05

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Posted in Weekly Summary

Earnings

The S&P 500 posts its strongest earnings growth since 2021.

Corporate results continue to surprise positively

The Q1 2026 earnings season has delivered strong results for the S&P 500. With 94% of companies having reported, 84% exceeded earnings expectations and 81% beat revenue estimates. Annual earnings growth stands at 28.4%, the highest since 2021, while revenues are up 11.6%.

Consensus expectations point to earnings growth of approximately 22% for full-year 2026, supporting market optimism despite elevated valuations. The S&P 500 forward P/E stands at 21.1x, above historical averages.

Corporate performance continues to be one of the main supports for the U.S. market. Positive earnings revisions reflect companies’ operational resilience and adaptability. However, elevated valuations suggest that part of the optimism is already priced in, which could increase market sensitivity if expectations are not met.

Monitor

Source: FactSet

Posted in Weekly Comment

Global Weekly Overview 

Week of May 18 to May 22

A week marked by inflation pressures, rising rates, and mixed growth signals

Markets are facing a more restrictive environment, with persistent inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. While some economies show resilience, others reflect a slowdown, amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

United States

  • Fed Minutes point to potential rate hikes.
  • 30-year yields surpass 5%.
  • Earnings grow ~28%, but housing weakens.
  • Labor market remains resilient.

Europe

  • Eurozone inflation rises to 3.0% driven by energy.
  • UK inflation moderates, but unemployment increases.
  • Germany grows in line with expectations, with rising cost pressures.

Japan

  • GDP exceeds expectations, but energy costs threaten growth.
  • Inflation falls to 1.4%, remaining below the central bank’s target.

China

  • Retail sales and industrial production slow.
  • Weak domestic demand reflects softer consumption and manufacturing momentum.

Argentina

  • Economic activity rebounds to 5.5%, reversing the previous contraction and signaling recovery.

Brazil

  • Economic activity declines monthly but maintains 3.1% annual growth, reflecting partial resilience.

Mexico

  • Moody’s downgrades rating to Baa3.
  • Growth remains moderate, supported by services and easing inflation.

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“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

  • In the United States, markets will remain closed for Memorial Day 05/25
  • In the United States, employment related data will be released 05/27

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Source: JP Morgan

Posted in Weekly Summary

Real Estate

Real estate remains a key building block of diversified portfolios. Understanding its fundamentals is essential to evaluating its role as an income generator and inflation hedge.

A core asset class: fundamentals and key trends

Real estate is an asset class based on investing in physical properties — such as residential, office, and logistics infrastructure — that generate income through rents and capital appreciation. Its appeal lies in its ability to produce relatively stable cash flows and act as a partial hedge against inflation, making it a relevant component of diversified portfolios.

In 2025, fundraising has rebounded, driven primarily by debt strategies and opportunistic funds. North America leads global activity, while Europe and Asia show more limited momentum. Despite this recovery, the current environment presents challenges: lower transaction activity, valuation pressures, and increased selectivity in capital allocation.

For investors, the current moment calls for discipline and clarity around risk-return objectives. Demographic trends and structural housing shortages continue to create opportunities, while the growing relevance of debt strategies and residential assets reflects a repositioning in market preferences.

Real estate’s appeal lies in its ability to generate relatively stable cash flows and act as a partial hedge against inflation. However, the current environment presents challenges: lower transaction activity, valuation pressures, and increased selectivity in capital allocation. The growing relevance of debt strategies and residential assets reflects a shift in risk-return preferences.

Monitor

Source: JP Morgan

Posted in Weekly Comment

Global Weekly Overview

Week of May 11 to May 15


A week marked by elevated inflation and mixed growth signals


Recent data point to a backdrop of persistent inflation driven by energy and geopolitical tensions. Despite this, consumption remains resilient in some economies, while growth is losing momentum in others.

United States
Inflation rises to 3.8% and PPI to 6.0%, driven by energy. Consumption remains resilient, but housing is slowing. Markets scale back rate cut expectations and increase the probability of hikes.

Europe
Eurozone GDP grows 0.8%, impacted by energy. Germany faces rising inflation and costs, while the UK surprises with stronger growth, although investment remains weak.

Japan
Producer prices rise to 4.9%, the highest since 2023. Energy costs are increasing inflationary pressures and influencing BoJ policy.

China
Inflation rises to 1.2% and PPI to 2.8%, driven by energy. Cost pressures could pass through to global prices despite weak food demand.

Argentina
Inflation slows to 32.4% year-over-year. While still elevated, it shows a moderating trend compared to previous levels.

Brazil
Inflation rises to 4.39%, driven by food and transportation. The figure remains below expectations, reflecting contained pressures.

Mexico
Employment grows but remains below required levels. Industrial activity contracts, while the automotive sector stands out as a key driver due to export strength.

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“Patience is not passive; it is concentrated strength.” – Bruce Lee

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

  • In the United States, the FED minutes will be released on 05/20
  • In the United States, employment related data will be released on 05/21

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Posted in Weekly Summary

Global Outlook

April’s inflation data in the U.S. presents a mixed picture: rising prices alongside a consumer that, for now, is holding firm.

U.S. inflation reaches highs while retail holds steady

U.S. inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year in April, its highest level since May 2023. While the energy sector drove much of the increase, core inflation also rose to 2.8%, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target.

Despite this environment and a slight decline in real wages, consumer spending remains notably resilient. The retail sector added 22,000 jobs during the month, reflecting strong business confidence amid sustained demand.

Persistent inflation complicates the Federal Reserve’s outlook. However, labor market resilience and continued hiring in retail suggest that consumption is, for now, cushioning the impact of higher fuel costs and geopolitical tensions.

Core prices posted their fastest monthly pace since January 2025, complicating the Fed’s path to rate cuts. Still, retail hiring and consumer resilience offer a signal of strength in the real economy.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Posted in Weekly Comment

Global Weekly Overview

Week of May 4 to May 8

A week marked by inflation pressures and slowing activity

Recent data point to a moderate growth environment with persistent cost pressures. Inflation driven by energy and geopolitical tensions continues to shape monetary policy decisions globally.

United States

  • Strong earnings (83% beating estimates) drive profit growth to ~23%.
  • Employment exceeds expectations but is slowing.
  • PMI signals rising cost pressures that could pass through to inflation.

Europe

  • Industrial costs remain elevated and services PMI drops to a 62-month low.
  • In Germany, weakness in manufacturing and services increases recession risks.

Japan

  • Services activity slows, while central bank minutes suggest potential rate hikes.
  • Energy shocks are raising inflation risks and pressure on exports.

China

  • Composite PMI improves on stronger demand, but input costs reach their highest levels since 2022, pressuring margins and growth sustainability.

Argentina

  • Industrial activity rises 5.0% year-over-year, driven by chemicals. However, sectors such as machinery and textiles remain in contraction.

Brazil

  • Industrial production rebounds 4.3%, reflecting the positive impact of rate cuts despite a more challenging global environment.

Mexico

  • Banxico cuts rates to 6.50% and inflation slows.
  • Investment falls 4.2%, signaling weaker momentum and pressure on future growth.

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“Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy.” — John Bogle

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

  • In the United States, Inflation data will be released — 05/12
  • In the United States, PPI data will be released — 05/13

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Posted in Weekly Summary

Inside Blackstone’s Platinum Circle: Key Takeaways for Activest Clients

A few weeks ago, I attended Blackstone’s Platinum Circle gathering in New York — an exclusive event bringing together a select group of the nation’s top Registered Investment Advisors to discuss the most pressing issues in investment management today. Topics ranged from the impact of geopolitical conflicts on markets to the accelerating rise of artificial intelligence. The conference offered invaluable insights into the dynamics of the current financial landscape and how Activest can best navigate an ever-shifting environment on behalf of our clients.

The full-day program covered a broad range of themes: a constructive macroeconomic outlook, continued conviction in physical assets, selective opportunities in real estate, private equity and infrastructure, and a strong preference for evergreen fund structures. Key speakers, including Jon Gray and Steve Schwarzman, emphasized underwriting discipline, inflation linkage in infrastructure contracts, and sound portfolio construction principles.

Macro and Cross-Asset Views

A central message from the conference was one of cautious optimism. Inflation is broadly easing, though oil remains a near-term source of upside pressure, and the cost of capital appears to be stabilizing. Speakers were clear that geopolitical shocks — however alarming — have historically not derailed markets over the long term. As one speaker noted, markets have weathered more than 22 wars and have always rebounded.

One speaker offered a line that stuck with me as a simple but powerful reminder about long-term discipline: “Your portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more you touch it, the smaller it gets.” Less turnover, better compounding. It’s a principle we take seriously at Activest.

Artificial intelligence is expected to increase dispersion and selectivity across sectors, pressuring some valuations without necessarily decimating industries. Meanwhile, investment in digital infrastructure continues to accelerate, with power supply emerging as a critical constraint — reinforcing the importance of infrastructure exposure within a well-diversified portfolio.

Real Assets and Real Estate

Real estate generated significant discussion throughout the day. Speakers were clear-eyed about its cyclical nature: values can compress on discount-rate moves even when underlying cash flows remain intact. One striking data point — the cost to purchase a home is now 30% higher than renting, and the median age of first-time homebuyers has risen from 31 to 38. This dynamic strongly favors multifamily rental investments, particularly in Sun Belt markets.

In retail, the lack of new construction over recent years has created meaningful scarcity. With demand for retail services growing at roughly 3% per year, that supply constraint could translate into real expansion opportunities — especially for properties with near-term lease expirations.

Self-storage was highlighted as another attractive sector, driven by its close ties to mobility and life-transition dynamics. Data centers, meanwhile, emerged as the clear standout of the real estate conversation. Occupancy rates are running near 99%, and estimated demand for computing power in the U.S. stands at 200 gigawatts — far exceeding current capacity. The opportunity here is substantial.

Office space appears to have bottomed, though speakers stopped short of calling it a compelling opportunity at this stage.

Public Equity, Private Markets, and the Case for Diversification

Public equity valuations remain elevated — approximately 15x free cash flow — implying forward returns in the mid-single to low-double digit range. Private market valuations, while also above historical averages at roughly 12x free cash flow, remain meaningfully lower than their public counterparts, presenting a relative opportunity for patient, long-term investors.

A recurring theme across multiple sessions was the importance of broad diversification in achieving stable, durable returns. One speaker put it simply: “Concentration makes money. Diversification preserves it.”

Private markets are increasingly gravitating toward evergreen structures, which offer income generation, diversification, and more streamlined access than traditional drawdown models. They also simplify performance measurement — capital is deployed as a lump sum rather than through unpredictable capital calls, making it easier to track and evaluate outcomes.

Looking Ahead

In an ever-shifting financial landscape, staying close to the world’s leading asset managers isn’t a luxury — it’s a responsibility we take seriously on behalf of our clients. Over the years, Activest has cultivated deep relationships with top-tier managers globally, and events like Blackstone’s Platinum Circle give us a front-row seat to the thinking that shapes markets. These conversations directly inform how we position portfolios and evaluate opportunities across asset classes.

We look forward to sharing more of these insights with you as the year unfolds.

Posted in Uncategorized

Infrastructure 

Infrastructure is one of the fastest-growing asset classes within private markets. Understanding what drives it and how it generates value is the first step in evaluating its role in a portfolio.

Fundamentals of an asset class built for the long term

Infrastructure encompasses essential assets such as energy, transportation, and digital networks, whose central characteristic is the generation of stable and predictable income over time. Unlike other asset classes, its value does not depend on short-term economic cycles, but on the structural demand for basic services.

In recent years, trends such as the energy transition and digitalization have expanded the universe of available opportunities, attracting institutional capital toward projects with long investment horizons.

However, the current environment presents important nuances: while fundraising has rebounded, it remains concentrated primarily in larger funds. Deal activity, meanwhile, faces pressure from lower transaction volumes.

Infrastructure stands out for its ability to generate predictable and resilient cash flows, even in volatile environments. However, the current landscape shows an imbalance between available capital and investment opportunities. Increased appetite for higher-risk strategies reflects an active search for yield, reinforcing the importance of manager selection and valuation discipline.

Source: JP Morgan

Posted in Weekly Comment

Markets: Stability with mixed signals

Week of April 27 to May 1

Stable rates, persistent inflation, and uneven growth define the week

Markets reflect stability in monetary policy, but with increasing divergence in growth and inflation. The geopolitical backdrop continues to pressure expectations and limit global economic visibility.

United States

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% with an 8–4 split, the largest since 1992. GDP grew 2.0%, driven by AI investment and government spending, but consumption is slowing. Confidence improved, though inflation pressures persist.

Europe

The ECB and BoE held rates but warned of inflation risks from energy. Inflation rose to 3%, while Germany’s economy grew 0.3%, reflecting modest expansion close to stagnation.

Japan

The BoJ kept rates at 0.75% amid internal division over inflation concerns. Retail sales rose 1.7%, driven by the automotive sector, signaling a gradual recovery in consumption.

China

Manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year. However, rising input costs from energy and metals are pressuring margins and the sustainability of growth.

Argentina

Fitch Ratings and Moody’s maintain a cautious outlook, highlighting risks from persistent inflation, institutional weakness, and reliance on fiscal adjustment.

Brazil

The central bank cut rates to 14.50%, supported by lower-than-expected inflation (4.37%). The easing cycle continues despite global uncertainty.

Mexico

GDP declined 0.8% in 1Q, with broad-based weakness. Despite record exports (+27.7%), external strength has yet to translate into domestic growth.

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“All intelligent investing is value investing. Acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.” – Charlie Munger

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

  • In the United States, Services PMI will be released on 05/05
  • In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 05/08

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of April 30th at closing.

Posted in Weekly Summary
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