Weekly Summary

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The Week in Brief

Investors doubted how the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out will be financed, and inflation ran hotter. Money left technology shares. CoreWeave’s bonds fell to distressed levels, and the September consumer price index (CPI) showed prices up 3.7% from a year earlier.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1% while the Dow rose. The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets at the end of the month. The week showed how much risk built up in AI hardware, and how well bonds cushion a selloff.

Three Things That Mattered

AI’s funding question reached the hardware makers Valuations built on AI spending now depend on how it is financed, as well as on demand.

Inflation is spreading beyond fuel Core consumer prices rose 2.6% in the year to September, faster than forecast, keeping another Fed increase live.

Bonds cushioned the equity selloff The 10-year yield fell 15 basis points despite the inflation surprise. Bonds steadied portfolios while growth stocks fell.

Market Dashboard

Weekly and YTD are price returns and exclude dividends. All figures are index and asset returns, not the performance of any strategy or client account. Yields in basis points, VIX in index points. Levels and returns in US dollars unless the row is marked with another currency; international indices are quoted in their own currency, so a US dollar result will differ with exchange-rate moves. Levels as at 11:00 AM New York, Friday, October 16, 2026; changes for markets still open then are not final, and closed markets are at their close. A dash means the figure could not be verified. Source: exchange and index-provider data; Cboe for Treasury yields.

United States: Economy & Policy

Inflation broadens September’s inflation reports gave the Fed little comfort. The CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with gasoline doing much of the work. The core measure, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.6% and also beat forecasts. Producer prices, published a day later, rose faster than economists expected. Taken together, the two reports show price pressure moving beyond energy into a wider range of goods and services. The Fed’s meeting at the end of the month is the next test of how policymakers weigh that.

The Fed keeps its options open The Fed’s target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00% after an increase in September, its first in three years. After both inflation reports were out, Chair Kevin Warsh spoke in Bangkok at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings. He declined to prejudge the October or December decisions, and his remarks did little to change expectations that policymakers will hold rates this month. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 27 and 28, and it will weigh this week’s inflation data against a slowing labor market.

Shoppers spend more, much of it on fuel Retail sales rose 0.8% in September, the Census Bureau said, beating forecasts. Higher gasoline prices accounted for a large share of the gain, and spending elsewhere was moderate. The labor market points the same way. The September employment report, published earlier in the month, put unemployment at 4.2%, a little higher than in August. Households are still spending, but more of each dollar is going to energy. The Fed has to weigh that squeeze against prices that are still rising faster than it wants.

Banks open earnings season Goldman Sachs earned $17.01 a share in the third quarter, well above forecasts, as advisory revenue rose 18% from a year earlier. JPMorgan Chase earned $5.57 a share, short of analysts’ estimates, after $658 million of losses on securities sales. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley also beat forecasts. Financial shares rose 1.9% on the week.

Markets & Earnings

AI hardware takes the losses The S&P 500’s technology sector fell 6.0%. The selling fell hardest on suppliers whose orders depend on AI spending. Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Flex, which build servers and equipment for data centers, each fell more than 20%. The momentum factor, which tracks the market’s recent winners, lost 7.0%.

Defensive shares take the lead Consumer staples gained 5.0%, the best sector in the S&P 500, and health care was close behind. Makers of household durables and apparel rose 4.1%. Johnson & Johnson bucked the trend, falling 5.7% after sales in its medical devices business missed estimates, though the company raised its forecast.

Skydance’s drop was mechanical Shares of Skydance fell 23.8% on Wednesday, the first day they traded without the right to warrants the company distributed. Much of the decline reflects value transferred into those warrants, so the 20.0% weekly loss overstates what shareholders actually lost.

Credit scorers rebound Fair Isaac and Equifax were the S&P 500’s two best performers, up 14.4% and 10.2%. Fair Isaac recovered part of a September decline as the dispute over which credit scores mortgage lenders may use took a new turn, and Equifax rose ahead of its results on October 20.

The AI financing question

On Monday, Broadcom’s chief executive, Hock Tan, said capital, more than chips or power, may become the biggest constraint on AI expansion.

Bonds of CoreWeave, an AI cloud provider, traded at levels that usually signal distress. Its chief executive called the reaction irrational.

The concern is whether companies that borrow heavily to build data centers can keep getting credit, with long-term Treasury yields above 5%.

The Bottom Line. Portfolios holding stocks and bonds felt much less of the selloff than the Nasdaq. Hot inflation data before the Fed’s October meeting, or signs big AI spenders are cutting back, would test that cushion.

International

Taiwan and the Netherlands: record chip demand Chip results stayed strong through the selloff. TSMC reported record third-quarter revenue of $46.7 billion, up 41% from a year earlier. ASML said 2027 and 2028 demand will likely outrun its supply.

Japan: chip stocks pull down the Nikkei The Nikkei 225, heavily weighted toward chip-equipment makers such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron, fell 5.4% on the week. Selling peaked Thursday, when hot U.S. inflation data deepened doubts about AI spending.

Europe: a refuge from the AI trade The STOXX Europe 600 rose 2.0%. Investors moved money from AI-linked stocks toward a market less exposed to them, and quarterly results from companies including Ericsson and Schneider Electric lifted sentiment.

India: gains from the rotation Indian shares, led by the NSE Nifty 50, outpaced the rest of Asia as money leaving the AI trade went to markets that had largely missed it.

Commodities

Oil: Hormuz risk outweighs reserve releases Brent rose 1.1% to $105.89 a barrel. U.S. Central Command confirmed an Iranian projectile struck a container ship that sank in Hormuz. The International Energy Agency agreed to speed emergency stock releases.

Precious metals: inflation weighs on silver Gold was little changed at $4,206.80 an ounce. Silver fell 7.3% in the week through Wednesday. Hotter inflation raised bets on further Fed increases, making non-yielding metals costlier to hold.

The Week Ahead

• Tuesday, Oct 20. September housing starts and building permits. GE Aerospace, RTX and 3M report before the open, and Netflix after the close.
• Wednesday, Oct 21. UK consumer price inflation for September. Meta Platforms, Tesla, Lam Research, IBM and Texas Instruments report after the close.
• Thursday, Oct 22. Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific and Lockheed Martin report before the open.
• Friday, Oct 23. S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ surveys for October in the U.S., the eurozone, the UK and Japan. American Express reports before the open.

Activest Wealth Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any offer. Information herein is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Views are as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees or expenses, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Please refer to Activest Wealth Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information and risks. All market data as of the close on the date shown unless otherwise noted.

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The Week in Brief

Oil and the Federal Reserve (Fed) shaped the week. Iran stepped up its attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico forced producers to cut output, lifting Brent crude to $104.70 a barrel. On Wednesday the Fed released the minutes of its September meeting. Every official had backed that month’s rate increase, and most expect another this year.

Stocks rose anyway. The S&P 500 gained 1.0%, led by energy, consumer staples and utilities, while chipmakers fell after a Financial Times report questioned OpenAI’s revenue. Energy and defensive sectors led the week. That suggests oil prices and the Fed now set the market’s direction more than enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) does.

Three Things That Mattered

The Fed is united on tightening The minutes showed no dissent over September’s increase, and most officials expect another one this year. That makes it likely borrowing costs stay high through the late-October meeting.

Oil is the inflation risk to watch Brent gained 2.4% as Gulf output was cut and tankers came under attack. Higher fuel costs feed directly into the price readings the Fed is weighing.

The chip trade lost its footing A press report casting doubt on OpenAI’s sales hit semiconductor makers hard. Leadership in American stocks moved to sectors that hold up when growth slows.

Market Dashboard

Weekly and YTD are price returns and exclude dividends. All figures are index and asset returns, not the performance of any strategy or client account. Yields in basis points, VIX in index points. Levels and returns in US dollars unless the row is marked with another currency; international indices are quoted in their own currency, so a US dollar result will differ with exchange-rate moves. Levels as at 11:00 AM New York, Friday, October 9, 2026; changes for markets still open then are not final, and closed markets are at their close. A dash means the figure could not be verified. Source: exchange and index-provider data; Cboe for Treasury yields.

United States: Economy & Policy

A unanimous Fed leans toward another increase The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in mid-September came out Wednesday. They show that every official supported the quarter-point increase that set the fed funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, the Fed’s first increase in three years. Most officials judged that another rise would likely be needed this year. Many described financial conditions, including rising stock prices, as supportive of growth, which makes the equity rally part of the case for tightening. The committee meets next on October 27 and 28.

Oil puts inflation back on the agenda The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), for August, showed prices up 3.4% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.4%. Energy accounts for much of that gap, and the war with Iran, now in its eighth month, added to it this week through tanker attacks, as did a Gulf hurricane. The September CPI arrives Wednesday. If fuel costs show up in core prices, the case for another increase gets stronger; a steady core would weaken it.

Households grow gloomier The University of Michigan’s preliminary October survey, released Friday, showed consumer sentiment at its lowest since May, with high prices weighing on households. Hiring has slowed as well: according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, payrolls grew by just 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Retail spending was still strong in August. Thursday’s September retail sales figures will show whether weaker confidence has started to reach the checkout.

Markets & Earnings

Energy and defensives lead Within the S&P 500, energy shares climbed 4.6% as crude rose. Consumer staples and utilities were close behind, sectors that typically hold up when growth and rates look uncertain. Smaller companies did worse. The Russell 2000, whose members rely more on floating-rate debt, fell 1.1%, a reminder of what higher-for-longer rates cost businesses that borrow heavily.

A revenue report hits chipmakers On Thursday the Financial Times reported that OpenAI’s revenue was lower than previously estimated, and makers of chips sold into AI data centers fell. Intel was already under pressure from Monday, when Elon Musk confirmed talks about Taiwan Semiconductor joining Terafab, his Texas chip venture. Intel fell 10.7% on the week, and technology was the weakest sector in the S&P 500.

Deals behind the biggest gains

PTC rose 35.0%, the largest gain in the S&P 500, after Schneider Electric agreed to buy the industrial software maker in an all-cash deal.

Constellation Energy rose 14.5% after signing a 20-year agreement to supply Google with nuclear power, the latest sign of AI data centers seeking long-term electricity contracts.

Crown Castle gained 16.4%. SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide block of low-band spectrum, a move Bernstein said keeps alive the possibility that SpaceX builds a ground network, which would need towers. SBA Communications rose with it.

The Bottom Line. This week’s equity gains came from energy and defensive sectors, while the Fed signaled that more tightening is likely, so the rate pressure on portfolios has not eased. Wednesday’s September CPI is the next test. A firm core reading would strengthen the case for an October increase; a softer one would relieve bonds and technology shares.

International

Japan The Nikkei 225 rose 1.1% on the week, and the dollar ended at 158.42 yen. A weak yen raises the yen value of exporters’ overseas earnings. Japan imports most of its energy, though, so expensive crude cuts into that benefit.

Europe The STOXX Europe 600 ended the week flat, and the euro slipped against the dollar. Like the U.S., Europe faces inflation pressure from oil. The European Central Bank (ECB) next sets rates on October 29.

Hong Kong The Hang Seng rose 1.0% in a week when mainland Chinese markets reopened after the Golden Week holiday. Even so, the index is still 5.5% lower this year, well behind the gains in Tokyo.

Commodities

Brent crude up 2.4% Iran stepped up attacks on tankers just as traffic through Hormuz neared prewar levels. Hurricane Isaias led Shell, Chevron and others to cut Gulf of Mexico output. The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to speed up releases from emergency stocks, prioritizing diesel. On Thursday, President Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.

Copper and gold higher Copper rose 3.2% as Chinese buyers returned after the national holiday. Gold gained 1.1% while silver fell, so the two precious metals went in opposite directions despite the same backdrop of high yields and a firmer dollar.

The Week Ahead

• Monday, Oct 12. U.S. bond markets are closed for Columbus Day; stock markets are open.
• Tuesday, Oct 13. JPMorgan Chase reports third-quarter results before the open.
• Wednesday, Oct 14. Consumer Price Index for September. The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book.
• Thursday, Oct 15. Retail sales for September. Producer Price Index for September. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh in conversation with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
• Friday, Oct 16. Industrial production and capacity utilization for September. Import and export prices.

Activest Wealth Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any offer. Information herein is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Views are as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees or expenses, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Please refer to Activest Wealth Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information and risks. All market data as of the close on the date shown unless otherwise noted.

Download the full report (PDF)

The Week in Brief

The Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation drove the week. Governor Michael Barr said further rate increases are likely to be needed, a business survey showed U.S. activity accelerating, and Brent crude rose with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. All of it came a week after the Fed’s first rate increase since 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.21%, its highest level since 2007.

Rising rates split the markets. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% on a rally in technology shares, while utilities and corporate bonds fell and the Mexican peso lost ground sharply against the dollar. For portfolios, tighter policy is costing most in bonds and rate-sensitive shares. August inflation data on Wednesday and the September jobs report on Friday will show whether that pressure builds.

Three Things That Mattered

The Fed is signaling more increases Barr’s remarks, a week after the first increase since 2023, point to further tightening. That keeps bond prices under pressure until inflation data show energy costs are contained.

Income assets bore the cost Utilities fell 4.5%, and corporate and long-dated government bonds had unusually weak weeks. Assets valued for their income are being repriced as yields climb.

Oil keeps inflation risk alive Brent rose with the Strait of Hormuz closed, keeping up the energy costs behind headline inflation. The reported talks on reopening the strait bear most directly on that pressure.

Market Dashboard

Weekly and YTD are price returns and exclude dividends. All figures are index and asset returns, not the performance of any strategy or client account. Yields in basis points, VIX in index points. Levels and returns in US dollars unless the row is marked with another currency; international indices are quoted in their own currency, so a US dollar result will differ with exchange-rate moves. Levels as at 11:00 AM New York, Friday, September 25, 2026; changes for markets still open then are not final, and closed markets are at their close. A dash means the figure could not be verified. Source: exchange and index-provider data; Cboe for Treasury yields.

United States: Economy & Policy

Barr makes the case for more increases Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Wednesday that further rate increases are "likely to be needed." His argument was that risks to the inflation target have grown while those to the labor market have receded. He spoke a week after the Fed lifted the fed funds target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023, and traders added to bets on another move in October. For bondholders, the question is now how far the Fed tightens. The next test is Wednesday’s August reading of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge.

A survey shows an economy running hot The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is a monthly survey of business activity. S&P Global’s flash reading for September put U.S. composite output at 58.4, its highest in 54 months. Analysts cited that strength, along with Barr’s remarks and energy costs, among the reasons yields rose. Firm activity combined with expensive energy is what keeps the Fed leaning toward tightening. The labor market offers no counterweight yet: unemployment held steady in the August employment report, published earlier this month. The September report arrives on Friday.

Energy keeps headline inflation elevated The latest inflation figures came out before this week, but they shape its debate. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 2.4%. That gap points to energy as the main source of pressure while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The concern Barr voiced is that the energy shock spreads into broader prices. Wednesday’s PCE release is the next reading on whether that is happening.

Markets & Earnings

Technology carried the S&P 500 The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, lifted almost entirely by technology. The index’s technology sector gained 3.5% as chipmakers rallied and software and data companies announced artificial-intelligence contracts and upbeat forecasts. That leaves the index’s gains resting on one theme, and Micron’s results on Wednesday are its next test.

Rate-sensitive shares gave ground Utilities, which compete with bonds for investors seeking income, fell 4.5% as yields climbed, an unusually steep week for the sector. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies fell 1.1%. Energy shares fell even as crude rose, with the refiner Valero among the S&P 500’s heaviest decliners.

Corporate bonds felt the rate move Measured against their own history, investment-grade corporate bonds suffered an unusually large weekly decline as Treasury yields rose. For balanced portfolios, higher rates are costing most in the holdings meant to provide stability. The same rise in yields also lifts the income available on new bond purchases.

Company news behind the biggest moves

Moderna rose 26.8%, the S&P 500’s largest gain, extending a rally that began with late-stage melanoma results in August for its Merck-partnered cancer vaccine.

Gen Digital, owner of Norton, fell 22.7%, the S&P 500’s steepest decline, in the week the Financial Times reported it had approached GoDaddy about a takeover.

Two gainers rose on forward-looking news. Everpure set out a preliminary fiscal 2028 outlook, and Akamai Technologies announced a seven-year cloud-services agreement with Anthropic.

The Bottom Line. Tighter policy is hitting bond holdings and rate-sensitive shares first, while technology shares are carrying equity returns. A reopened Strait of Hormuz or softer August inflation data would ease the pressure on rates; firmer readings would add to it.

International

Tokyo climbs, Hong Kong slips The Nikkei 225 rose 2.1% as the yen weakened against the dollar, adding to a strong year for Japanese shares. Hong Kong went the other way. The Hang Seng fell 1.0% and remains lower for the year, apart from the gains elsewhere in Asia’s largest markets.

Europe steadier than its bonds The STOXX Europe 600 added 0.5%. S&P Global’s flash surveys showed euro-area output growing at its fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. The euro and the pound both weakened against the dollar, and Britain’s survey showed price pressures intensifying.

The peso takes the sharpest hit The dollar rose 3.3% against the Mexican peso, far outside the pair’s usual weekly range. Banco de México left its benchmark rate unchanged on Thursday, as economists had expected. The slide came as U.S. yields climbed, which narrows the peso’s interest-rate advantage over the dollar.

Commodities

Oil stays high with Hormuz shut Brent crude rose 2.1% to $106.04 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, the route for about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, remains closed during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Late in the week, The Wall Street Journal reported that American and Iranian negotiators were working toward reopening it.

Gold slips as yields rise Gold fell 2.5% to $4,314.10 an ounce. Higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar raised the cost of holding a metal that pays no income, and expectations of further Fed increases added to the pressure. Silver fell as well.

The Week Ahead

• Tuesday, Sep 29. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
• Wednesday, Sep 30. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases August personal income and spending, including PCE inflation, along with its gross domestic product report. Micron Technology reports quarterly results after the close.
• Thursday, Oct 1. The Labor Department publishes weekly jobless claims, and the Census Bureau releases August construction spending.
• Friday, Oct 2. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September employment report.

Activest Wealth Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any offer. Information herein is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Views are as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees or expenses, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Please refer to Activest Wealth Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information and risks. All market data as of the close on the date shown unless otherwise noted.