Weekly Comment

Recent college graduates are having an unusually difficult time finding jobs. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas asks whether AI is to blame.

Dallas Fed research links AI to weaker job prospects for recent graduates

Recent college graduates are having an unusually difficult time finding jobs, and research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas asks how much of that is down to AI. It uses education and earnings records for students and graduates of Texas public universities. It compares majors that typically lead to occupations generative AI can more readily automate with majors that lead to less automatable ones. The most-exposed majors include computer science, computer engineering and languages, while nursing, education and psychology are among the least-exposed fields.

The gap in employment rates between more- and less-exposed majors was stable before ChatGPT’s release in late 2022. Since then, a 10-percentage-point higher share of automatable tasks in a major has been associated with a 1.7-percentage-point relative decline in employment rates, according to the Dallas Fed. Among graduates who found work in Texas, first-year earnings for more-exposed majors also fell by approximately 5 percent from 2021 to 2024 relative to less-exposed majors. Taken together, the Dallas Fed concludes, the AI transition has negatively affected many recent college graduates.

Graduates and students are already adjusting to the shift in demand for skills. Returning students largely continued in the same field as their undergraduate major. Two-thirds of 2024 computer science graduates who went back to school the following fall chose a computer science graduate program. New undergraduates, by contrast, have begun to pivot away from AI-exposed fields. For a 10-percentage-point difference in automatable task shares across majors, undergraduate enrollment at Texas four-year institutions declined by 4.8 percent between fall 2024 and fall 2025.

Activest Wealth Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any offer. Information herein is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Views are as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees or expenses, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Please refer to Activest Wealth Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information and risks. All market data as of the close on the date shown unless otherwise noted.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished narrowly ahead of President Lula in the first round. The two meet again on October 25, and Brazilian markets have already reacted.

What the first round showed

Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a runoff on October 25. In the first round on October 4, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), a son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, received 47.03% of valid votes. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) received 45.16%. The campaign focused on the cost of living, corruption and public safety, Reuters reported. Abstention, at 21.08%, was the highest since 1998. Starting next year, the PL will hold more seats than any other party in both the Senate (28 of 81) and the Chamber of Deputies (121 of 513), according to Americas Quarterly.

The result differed from most pre-election polls. Datafolha’s final survey, taken the day before the vote, had Lula ahead 45% to 42% among valid votes. Prediction markets moved after the count. On October 7, Polymarket priced Bolsonaro’s chance of winning the runoff at about 85%, up from roughly 60% before the vote, according to The Rio Times. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, showed a similar level. These prices reflect traders’ bets, not polls, and can change quickly. The first runoff polls are due on October 8.

Brazilian assets moved sharply on the result. On October 5, the Ibovespa stock index rose 7.7% to 206,912 points, its largest one-day gain since March 2020, and the real gained about 4% against the US dollar, Reuters reported. Investors read the outcome as improving the chances of a more fiscally conservative government. Analysts also pointed to limits. Andrés Abadía of Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that whoever wins will face rising mandatory spending and high debt-service costs. Alessandra Ribeiro of Tendências Consultoria told Americas Quarterly that the risk of disappointment on fiscal adjustment is significant. Brazil’s public debt is above 82% of GDP.

The three weeks before the runoff leave room for change. The União Brasil–Progressistas federation, which won 87 lower-house seats, has endorsed Bolsonaro, as have eliminated candidates Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. The PSD stayed neutral. Lula is focusing on his base in the Northeast and on voters who stayed home. Endorsements do not transfer votes automatically, and about 9.3 million votes went to other candidates. In the 2022 runoff, the closest in Brazil’s history, Lula won with 50.9% to 49.1%. The winner will lead Brazil from January 2027.

Activest Wealth Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any offer. Information herein is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Views are as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees or expenses, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Please refer to Activest Wealth Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information and risks. All market data as of the close on the date shown unless otherwise noted.

Every eligible American child now has a Trump Account. For families already using 529 plans, custodial accounts and regular gifts, the question is how it fits.

A new account for children and grandchildren under eighteen

The Treasury has finished automatically enrolling eligible children in Trump Accounts, so in many families every child and grandchild under eighteen now has one. The accounts cover every eligible child under the age of eighteen with a valid Social Security number, the Treasury said. Each is a tax-advantaged investment account, and like any investment account its value can rise or fall. Family members, friends and employers can contribute only once a parent or guardian claims the account. Claiming matters most for the youngest children. Certain children born from 2025 through 2028 can receive a one-time $1,000 seed contribution from the Treasury, and it is paid only into accounts that have been claimed.

For families that already plan for the next generation, a Trump Account adds to what is in place; it does not replace it. Federal law created it as a type of traditional individual retirement account for a child, so it is built for the long term. A 529 plan, by contrast, is built around education. A custodial account is different again: gifts to it belong to the child and typically pass to the child’s control as a young adult. For grandparents who make regular gifts to grandchildren, a contribution here is one more gift to weigh alongside those already planned. Families that own a business face an open question, because the rules for employer contributions to these accounts are still a proposal awaiting a public hearing.

Before claiming an account or adding money to it, a few points are worth settling within the family. The first is who claims it, since the person who claims an account manages it. A parent or guardian can claim, and IRS rules also allow a legal custodian to do so. The second is how each account fits the plan for that particular child, since every eligible child has an account of their own. The third is timing: parts of the rules are still open for public comment, so details may change. Claiming an account does not commit anyone to contribute. Whether it deserves new money is a separate decision, best made alongside the family’s 529 plans, custodial accounts and gifting plan.

Activest Wealth Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any offer. Information herein is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Views are as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Index returns do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees or expenses, and you cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Please refer to Activest Wealth Management, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information and risks. All market data as of the close on the date shown unless otherwise noted.