Elizabeth Regis

U.S. employment, inflation in Europe, and export rebounds in Mexico and China. 

Week of April 28 to May 2 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

• United States 
177,000 jobs were created in April, beating the 138,000 forecast. However, consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in five years, and Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3%. 
Job openings (JOLTS) also dropped to a six-month low. 

• Europe 
Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in the first quarter, exceeding projections. However, consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.9% over the next 12 months. 

• China 
The government reaffirmed its commitment to boosting growth through proactive fiscal measures. However, manufacturing activity declined again, reaching a two-year low. 

• Brazil 
The Central Bank emphasized a comprehensive approach amid early signs of economic cooling and inflation levels still above target. There’s growing optimism around the ratification of the Mercosur-EU agreement. 

• Mexico 
Preliminary Q1 2025 GDP grew 0.2%, avoiding a technical recession. Exports rose 9.6% year-over-year, and the trade surplus reached US$3.443 billion. Still, inflation edged up slightly to 3.96%. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

Key Upcoming Events 

• In the U.S., the ISM Services Index will be released – 05/05 
• In the U.S., the Fed will announce monetary policy – 05/07 

Monitor 

Strong U.S. sales and growth in China stand in contrast with ongoing trade tensions. 

Week of April 21–25 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

United States 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that trade tensions with China could ease in the coming months, though a unilateral removal of tariffs is not under consideration. 
• The IMF revised its U.S. growth forecast downward to 1.8% for 2025, from a previous estimate of 2.7%. 
• Gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time in history. 

Europe 

• Economic activity in both the eurozone and the U.K. stagnated, impacted by trade-related uncertainty. 
• Nevertheless, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index posted an unexpected increase in April, reflecting improved sentiment. 

China 

• For the sixth consecutive month, interest rates were left unchanged: the one-year LPR remains at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR at 3.6%. 
• The Chinese government ruled out resuming trade negotiations with the U.S. while tariffs remain in place. 

Brazil 

• The Finance Minister dismissed the likelihood of a recession, expressing confidence that global tariffs will not be sustained and emphasizing that inflation is approaching the Central Bank’s target. 

Mexico 

• Citi revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to 0.2% (from 0.3%) and now anticipates the benchmark interest rate to end the year at 7.75%. 
• Inflation in the first half of April rose to 3.96%, driven primarily by price increases in fruits and vegetables. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

 Key Upcoming Events 

• May 1: ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S.) 
• May 2: Employment indicators (U.S.) 

Monitor 

Week of April 14–17 

Here’s a quick look at the most relevant developments that shaped markets during this shortened week. 

United States 

• President Trump is considering temporary exemptions from the 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts. 
• Electronic devices like smartphones and computers have been temporarily exempted. 
• Retail sales rose 1.4% in March, beating expectations. 
• Fed Governor Waller noted that the inflationary impact of tariffs would likely be “transitory.” 

Europe 

• U.K. inflation fell to 2.6% in March, better than expected. 
• EU leaders believe most tariffs imposed on the bloc will remain in place. 
• The U.S. may temporarily ease some tariffs, but full removal isn’t expected. 

China 

• Exports rose 12.4% year-over-year in March, surpassing the 4.4% forecast. 
• First-quarter GDP grew 5.4% annually, despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. 

Brazil 

• Analysts expect economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, weighed down by high domestic interest rates and global trade friction. 

Mexico 

• The U.S. will impose a 20.91% tariff on Mexican tomato imports starting in July. 
• Finance executives warn that Mexico could lose its investment-grade rating by 2026 if trade relations with the U.S. deteriorate and fiscal deficits persist. 

Staying informed is key to understanding the ever-changing environment in which investments operate.

IMPORTANT EVENTS – CALENDAR 

• April 23: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic report will be released. 
• April 22–24: Regional manufacturing reports will be published in the U.S. 

Monitor 

Week of April 7–11

Here’s your weekly global economic summary, highlighting the most relevant developments. This week, tariff decisions, inflation data, and growth projections took center stage. 

HIGHLIGHTS 

United States 
• A 90-day tariff “pause” was announced. During this period, a universal tariff of 10% will apply—except for China, which will face a 145% rate. 
• March inflation slowed to 2.4% year-over-year. Core inflation dropped to 2.8%, its lowest level since March 2021. 
• The Federal Reserve remains cautious as it balances high inflation risks with slower growth. 

Europe 
• Markets now expect at least two rate cuts from the ECB in upcoming meetings. 
• The EU approved $23.2 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods but paused implementation in alignment with U.S. actions. 

Japan 
• Real wages fell 1.2% year-over-year in February, reflecting diminished purchasing power due to inflation. 

China 
• Tariffs on U.S. products were increased to 125%. 

Brazil 
• The services sector grew 0.8% month-over-month in February and 4.2% year-over-year, marking its eleventh consecutive increase. 

Mexico 
• Citi-surveyed analysts lowered their 2025 growth forecast to 0.3%. 
• March inflation accelerated to 3.8%, remaining within the Bank of Mexico’s target range. 

We’re closely tracking this dynamic environment to help you make informed decisions.

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

April 16–17 
• U.S. housing and construction data to be released 

April 18 
• U.S. markets closed for Good Friday 

Monitor

U.S. Imposes Global Tariffs 

Week of March 31 – April 4 

Here are the key events that influenced market sentiment this week: 

United States 

• The U.S. announced a new 10% blanket tariff on imports, with reciprocal measures for over 150 countries starting April 9. 
• Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations in March, adding +228,000 jobs, though unemployment rose to 4.2%. 
• Manufacturing activity contracted for the first time this year, according to the ISM index. 

Europe 

• Inflation fell to 2.2% year-over-year, in line with expectations. 
• Markets anticipate a 25-bps rate cut at the ECB’s April 17 meeting. 
• The European Commission responded to U.S. tariffs and is preparing countermeasures. 

China 

• The manufacturing PMI reached a 12-month high, driven by a surge in new orders. 
• The country will face a 54% tariff on its exports to the U.S. and has retaliated with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods. 

Brazil 

• Industrial production unexpectedly declined by 0.1% month-over-month in February, dragged down by durable goods manufacturing. 

Mexico 

• February remittances totaled $4.459 billion, down 1% year-over-year. 
• Mexico and Canada were excluded from the U.S. tariff announcement. 
• The government introduced an 18-point plan to boost domestic consumption, investment, and social programs. 

In times of volatility, it’s essential not to be swayed by short-term noise—discipline and patience create long-term wealth. 

Important events:

• April 9: The U.S. Federal Reserve minutes will be released. 
• April 10: March inflation data will be published in the U.S. 

Monitor