Global Challenges Mount as Markets Seek Stability

Strong U.S. sales and growth in China stand in contrast with ongoing trade tensions. 

Week of April 21–25 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

United States 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that trade tensions with China could ease in the coming months, though a unilateral removal of tariffs is not under consideration. 
• The IMF revised its U.S. growth forecast downward to 1.8% for 2025, from a previous estimate of 2.7%. 
• Gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time in history. 

Europe 

• Economic activity in both the eurozone and the U.K. stagnated, impacted by trade-related uncertainty. 
• Nevertheless, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index posted an unexpected increase in April, reflecting improved sentiment. 

China 

• For the sixth consecutive month, interest rates were left unchanged: the one-year LPR remains at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR at 3.6%. 
• The Chinese government ruled out resuming trade negotiations with the U.S. while tariffs remain in place. 

Brazil 

• The Finance Minister dismissed the likelihood of a recession, expressing confidence that global tariffs will not be sustained and emphasizing that inflation is approaching the Central Bank’s target. 

Mexico 

• Citi revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to 0.2% (from 0.3%) and now anticipates the benchmark interest rate to end the year at 7.75%. 
• Inflation in the first half of April rose to 3.96%, driven primarily by price increases in fruits and vegetables. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

 Key Upcoming Events 

• May 1: ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S.) 
• May 2: Employment indicators (U.S.) 

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