Elizabeth Regis

November 24–26 

In a holiday-shortened week, U.S. labor data and inflation trends in Latin America took center stage. Expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move are once again driving market sentiment. 

United States: 

• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since April, and layoffs continued to rise, pushing the probability of a December rate cut to 84%, up from 39% the previous week. 

Europe: 

• Business confidence in Germany unexpectedly weakened. In the United Kingdom, the new fiscal budget includes tax increases amid an environment of sluggish economic growth. 

Japan: 

• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi heightened diplomatic tensions with China after stating that Japan could intervene if Beijing acts against Taiwan, adding uncertainty to the regional outlook. 

China: 

• Industrial profits fell 5.5% in October, while the government adopted a firmer stance regarding Taiwan, amplifying geopolitical risks across Asia. 

Brazil: 

• Annual inflation slowed to 4.50% in November, returning to the central bank’s target range for the first time since January—an outcome welcomed by markets. 

Mexico: 

• Inflation rose to 3.61% in the first half of November. Banxico revised its 2025 growth forecast down from 0.6% to 0.3%, while keeping its 2026 estimate unchanged at 1.1%. 

“The thesis underlying everything, whether you’re an actively managed fund or a passive fund, is that the U.S. will be OK. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be in the stock market.” — Peter Lynch 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• United States: Second estimate of Q3 2025 GDP and ISM Manufacturing — December 2 
• United States: ISM Services Index — December 3 

Monitor

November 17–21 

The U.S. labor market returned to the spotlight this week, while Europe maintained a stable tone and Japan showed signs of cooling. In Mexico, foreign direct investment continued to strengthen. Here are the key topics to watch. 

United States: 

• The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, above expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. 
• The Fed remains divided, and the probability of a December rate cut currently stands at 40%. 

Europe: 

• Inflation remains stable near 2%, and the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at least through the end of 2026. 
• In the UK, inflation fell to 3.6%, potentially opening the door for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December. 

Japan: 

• GDP fell 1.8% annualized in the third quarter, with a quarterly contraction of 0.4%. 
• Exports were the main drag, reflecting a weaker external backdrop. 

China: 

• For the sixth consecutive month, the central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged. 
• The decision was in line with expectations as the economy seeks stability amid domestic challenges. 

Mexico: 

• FDI grew 14.5% year-over-year from January to September, surpassing $40 billion. 
• Economic activity showed no change in October, both month-over-month and compared with the same month in 2024. 

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• U.S.: Beige Book release — 11/26 
• U.S.: Thanksgiving Day (market holiday) — 11/27 

Monitor

Week: Week of November 11-15 

Markets moved through a week of soft economic activity in the U.S. and mixed signals across global regions. Key developments included monetary policy adjustments, moderate growth figures, and relevant updates on inflation and employment. This backdrop underscores the importance of analyzing structural trends, not just short-term market moves. 

• United States: The agreement to fund the government through January ended the longest shutdown on record, while the Fed showed mixed views on future rate cuts. The technology sector remained volatile amid valuation concerns. 

• Europe: The U.K. labor market weakened, with unemployment rising to 5.0%—its highest level since 2021. 3Q25 growth slowed, reinforcing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. The eurozone economy continued to expand at a modest pace in the third quarter. 

• Japan: The Bank of Japan reiterated that it aims for moderate inflation supported by wage growth and improving economic conditions, in line with the government’s broader growth strategy. 

• China: Producer prices fell 2.1% year over year—less than expected—while consumer inflation rose 0.2%, reversing two months of declines. Industrial production and retail sales also delivered weak readings. 

• Brazil: Monthly inflation rose 0.09%, helped by lower electricity tariffs, while the annual figure dropped to 4.68%. The central bank is preparing additional regulations to address the increase in cyberattacks. 

• Mexico: Industrial activity fell 3.3% in September, marking seven consecutive months of contraction. Banxico expects inflation to converge to 3% by 3Q26 and anticipates only limited impact from new taxes. 

“We don’t prognosticate macroeconomic factors; we’re looking at our companies from a bottom-up perspective on their long-run prospects of returning.” – Mellody Hobson 

Key Upcoming Events:  

• United States: Industrial production – 11/18. 
• United States: Federal Reserve minutes – 11/19. 

Monitor

November 3–7

Markets reflected a week of steady interest rates, weaker manufacturing data, and resilience in services. In the United States, the government shutdown remains unresolved, while year-end spending shows a more moderate tone compared with 2024. 

United States: 
Concerns over AI valuations drove market sentiment. Manufacturing activity declined, but the services sector rebounded. The government shutdown set a new record, and year-end spending is expected to moderate. 

Europe: 
Eurozone manufacturing stalled due to a lack of new orders, although production continued to grow. The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 4%, as expected. 

Asia: 
In Japan, manufacturing posted its worst reading in more than a year, pressured by weak demand in autos and semiconductors. The services sector remained resilient despite a slower pace of new orders. 
In China, manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in six months. Services expanded but at the slowest pace since July, mainly due to weaker export demand. 

Latin America: 
In Brazil, the Central Bank held its key rate at 15%, the highest level since 2006, indicating caution amid persistent inflationary pressures. 
In Mexico, Banco de México cut its policy rate to 7.25%, in line with expectations. September remittances fell 2.7% YoY, though they remain above $5 billion. 

“The investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham 

Important Events: 

• U.S. October inflation data will be released — November 13 
• U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published — November 14 

Monitor

Week: October 27-31 

The week was marked by mixed signals in global markets following a series of key events. These included the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) second consecutive policy rate cut, the extension of the tariff truce between the United States and China, the stagnation of the German economy, and the improvement in China’s industrial profits. These developments underscore the complexity of the global economic and trade environment. 

United States: 

• The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate to a range of 3.75% – 4.00%. 
• Trump and Xi agreed to extend the tariff truce for one more year. 
• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in six months. 
• Earnings season continues to show strength, with S&P 500 earnings growing about 10% this quarter. 

Europe

• The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key rate at 2%. 
• Germany’s economy stagnated due to weaker exports and ongoing global trade pressures, despite a slight improvement in business sentiment. 

Japan

• The government highlighted a moderate recovery supported primarily by capital spending. 
• Caution persists due to risks linked to U.S. trade policy. 

China:

• Industrial profits rose 21.6% YoY in September, the fastest pace since November 2023. This reflects better capacity utilization. 

Brazil

• The U.S. Senate approved a bill to revoke tariffs on Brazil by lifting the national emergency declaration issued in July. 

Mexico:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.3%YoY in 3Q25. 
• According to President Sheinbaum, the United States extended the negotiation period to avoid the implementation of a 30% tariff. 

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it.” – Albert Einstein 

Key Upcoming Events 

• U.S.: ISM Manufacturing – Nov 3. 
• U.S.: ISM Services & employment-related data (tentative) – Nov 5-7. 

Monitor

Week: October 13–17 

Markets showed a mix of recovery signs and new challenges, driven by trade tensions, monetary policy decisions, and corporate earnings. 

United States 

• Tensions with China escalated following new statements from President Trump. 
• Chair Powell suggested the end of the tightening cycle, opening the door to potential rate cuts. 
• Banks reported solid earnings, though volatility persists among regional banks. 

Europe 

• German investor confidence rose less than expected. 
• The U.K. economy grew 0.1% in August, but with downward revisions to prior data. 
• The IMF urged the Bank of England to remain cautious, as inflation is expected to stay the highest in the G7. 

Asia 

• In China, exports rose 8.3% year-over-year in September, the fastest pace in six months. 
• Inflation fell again (-0.3%), reflecting weak domestic demand and ongoing trade tensions. 
• Producer prices dropped 2.3% annually. 

Latin America 

• In Brazil, the economy expanded 0.4% in August, below expectations. Analysts expect a deeper slowdown as monetary policy remains tight. The Central Bank maintained its benchmark rate at 15%. 
• In Mexico, the IMF projects a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP for 2025 — the highest since 2000. The government is assessing potential tariff adjustments for 2026, depending on U.S.–China trade developments. 

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• China: GDP, industrial production, and retail sales data — October 20 
• United States: Consumer prices and new home sales — October 24 

Monitor: