Elizabeth Regis

The Fed, Trump, and global tensions shape the direction in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and LATAM.

Week of February 17 to 21

Below are some key points that reflect the current economic landscape in different regions:

• United States: The Fed’s minutes show that members require further inflation reduction before lowering rates again. Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for more data confirming inflation progress. Meanwhile, President Trump announced the possibility of imposing 25% tariffs on imports of automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2.

• Europe: Geopolitical tensions escalated after U.S. talks with Russia about a potential peace agreement in Ukraine, excluding Kyiv and the EU. In the UK, inflation reached 3% year-over-year, the highest in 10 months, surpassing the 2.8% expectation, driven by smaller drops in airline fares and higher fuel prices.

• Japan: The economy accelerated in Q4 2024 with an annualized growth of 2.8%, surpassing the 1% forecast, driven by higher consumer spending and increased CAPEX. Exports in January grew 7.2% year-over-year, led by the automotive sector oriented toward the U.S.

• China: President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his support for the private sector and urged companies to “show their talent.” The People’s Bank kept the one-year reference rate at 3.10% and the five-year rate at 3.60%.

• Mexico: The Bank of Mexico reported that international reserves reached $232.724 billion, the highest level since 1995. However, the growth forecast for the year was revised down to 0.6% (from 1.2%) due to lower consumption and private investment. Preliminary figures indicate a 1.8% year-over-year growth in January, with only a 0.1% monthly increase.

These events and figures will be essential for understanding the current economic context and its possible repercussions. If you would like more information or wish to discuss how these factors might impact your investment strategies, we are at your disposal.

Weekly Summary Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., the second revision of Q4 2024 GDP will be released on 02/27
• In the U.S., the PCE inflation data, closely followed by the Fed, will be released on 02/28

Monitor

New tariffs, rising inflation, and Fed policies shape the global economic outlook.

Week of February 10 to 14 

President Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from several countries, including Mexico, Canada, and Brazil. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation rose 0.5% month-over-month in January and 3.0% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the Fed will not rush to cut rates anytime soon 
 
Global highlights: 

• EU: Warned of countermeasures against new U.S. tariffs. 
  
• Germany: Exports increased, but industrial production declined. 

• UK: Unexpected 0.1% GDP growth in Q4 2024. 

• Japan: Wholesale inflation reached 4.2%, the highest in seven months. 

• China: Inflation saw its highest increase in five months, but manufacturing remains weak. 

• Brazil: Adopting a cautious approach to U.S. tariffs; the services sector ended 2024 with weak performance. 

• Mexico: Rate cuts may continue, while Moody’s warns of risks to the auto sector due to new tariffs. 

Markets will closely monitor the impact of these developments on global monetary policies and key industries. 

Important events in the coming weeks 

• In the United States, the Fed minutes will be released on 02/19. 

• In the United States, the Consumer Confidence report will be released on 02/21.  

Monitor 

Global summary: U.S. employment, cuts in Mexico and Europe, and trade tensions.

Week of February 3 to 7

This week’s global economic highlights:

• United States: President Donald Trump temporarily suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while the labor market shows signs of slowing down with 143,000 jobs created in January and an unemployment rate of 4.0%.

• Europe: Inflation in the Eurozone slightly increased to 2.5% year-over-year in January, while the Bank of England cut its rate to 4.5% and adjusted its growth forecast.

• Asia: Japan is evaluating rate adjustments to reach its inflation target, and China is facing a tariff exchange with the U.S., impacting its energy and manufacturing sectors.

• Latin America: Mexico lowered its interest rate to 9.5%, supported by an improvement in inflation, and Argentina announced the end of its currency controls by 2026.

We invite you to follow our updates to stay informed about how these events may influence global economic and financial trends.

Key events in the coming weeks:

• China: January inflation data to be released on 02/10
• United States: January inflation data to be released on 02/12

Monitor

The impact of central bank decisions and global economic performance in early 2025. 

Week of January 27 to 31 

So far this year, global economies have shown mixed signals: 

• United States: The Fed maintained the benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.5%, while Q4 2024 GDP grew 2.3%, marking a slowdown compared to previous quarters. 
   

• Europe: The ECB cut the benchmark rate to 2.75% amid economic stagnation in the Eurozone. 
   

• China: Manufacturing and services activity unexpectedly contracted, reinforcing expectations for new stimulus measures. 
   

• Mexico: Exports grew 4.1% year-over-year in 2024, while Q4 2024 GDP declined by 0.6%, marking its first contraction since 2021. 

We invite you to analyze this data and consider its implications for your financial and strategic decisions. If you’d like more information or a detailed analysis, please feel free to contact us. 

Important events in the next weeks 

• In the United States, the manufacturing ISM will be released on 02/03. 
•  In the United States, employment data will be released on 02/07. 

Monitor 

^{Global Analysis: Politics, economy, and key trends in international markets.}

^{Week of January 21 to 24} 

^{The week was marked by the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. He signed executive orders on immigration, energy, and security and announced the possibility of implementing a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1.} 

^{On the economic front, there was a slight increase in unemployment insurance claims. Meanwhile, the Q4 2024 earnings season had a strong start, with S&P 500 companies reporting an initial 5% growth in sales and a 17% increase in profits.}  

^{In other global markets:} 

^{• Europe: The ECB is expected to announce a rate cut next week, while consumer sentiment shows improvement.} 

^{• Japan: The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 0.5%, aligning with expectations.} 

^{• China: The People’s Bank of China kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive month.} 

^{• Mexico: Inflation fell to its lowest level since 2021, and the IMF revised its 2024 growth forecast upward.} 

^{These developments highlight the importance of staying vigilant regarding key movements in global politics and economics.} 

^{Important events in the coming weeks} 

• ^{In the United States, the Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be on 01/29} 
• ^{In the United States, Q4 2024 GDP will be released on 01/30} 

^Monitor