Elizabeth Regis

Week of June 30 – July 3 

A short week marked by new trade agreements and mixed economic data across major markets. 

Robust employment, tax reform, and mixed global signals 
Here are the most relevant developments from the international scene this week: 

• United States 

• Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside, with 147,000 new jobs added in June, beating expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
• The Senate approved President Trump’s fiscal plan, which includes new deductions and extends the 2017 tax cuts.  
• A new trade agreement was announced with Vietnam. 

• Europe 

• Eurozone inflation rose slightly to 2% year-over-year, in line with expectations. 
• The European Union signaled willingness to accept a general 10% tariff if the U.S. reduces duties in key sectors such as alcohol, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. 

• China 

• Manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month, though at a slower pace. 
• The services sector grew at its slowest rate in nine months, amid weakening demand and fewer new orders. 

• Brazil 

• The Central Bank indicated that recent easing in inflation may allow for a reassessment of its monetary stance. The Selic rate remains at 15%, its highest level since 2006. 

• Mexico 

• Banxico highlighted the strength of the financial system following the intervention of three institutions under investigation for alleged money laundering. 
• Remittances totaled US$5.36 billion in May, a 4.6% year-over-year decline. 

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” — Benjamin Franklin 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• United States: FOMC minutes release – 07/12 
• China: June inflation report – 07/09 

Monitor 

Rate cut in Mexico, potential stimulus in China, and caution from the US defined the week. 

Week of June 23–27 

Investors closely watching monetary policy, oil prices, and inflation. A week marked by rate adjustments, mixed economic signals, and easing geopolitical tensions 

This week brought key developments in monetary policy, economic growth, and geopolitics. Here’s a country-by-country summary of the most relevant updates: 

• United States: Former President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the likelihood of holding interest rates steady as tariff impacts are assessed. Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.5%, a deeper decline than expected, and consumer confidence fell again.  
  
• Europe: The Eurozone continues to show lackluster growth, though Germany posted signs of a manufacturing rebound. In the UK, the composite PMI edged up slightly due to improved new orders. 
  
• China: Citi raised its 2025 growth forecast to 5%. A new fiscal stimulus package worth approximately $70 billion is expected.
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank signaled a pause in its tightening cycle to assess the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes. 
  
• Mexico: Banxico cut the benchmark rate to 8%. Inflation rose to 4.51% year-over-year in the first half of June. The government issued $6.8 billion in debt maturing in 2032 and 2038. 

“Discipline is what separates an investor from a gambler.” – Peter Lynch 

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH 

• July 1 – US ISM Manufacturing Index release  
• July 4 – US markets closed in observance of Independence Day 

Monitor 

Economic Radar 

Week of June 16–20 

A week of contrasts: mixed signals across growth, interest rates, and geopolitics 

This week was shaped by key central bank decisions, contrasting economic indicators, and renewed geopolitical tensions. Below is a summary of the most relevant developments by region: 

• United States: The Fed held its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% and revised its projections: GDP growth was lowered to 1.4% (from 1.7%) and core inflation was raised to 3.1% (from 2.8%). While two rate cuts remain on the table for 2025, seven members now forecast no changes. In parallel, retail sales fell 0.9% month-over-month, and Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher following evacuation orders issued by Trump in Tehran. 
  
• Europe: The ECB maintained a flexible stance without committing to further cuts. In the UK, annual inflation stood at 3.4%, in line with expectations. The Bank of England kept its rate at 4.25%, signaling potential cuts if conditions allow. 
  
• China: The PBOC left benchmark rates unchanged. Retail sales surprised to the upside (+6.4% YoY), and industrial production grew 5.8% YoY. 
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank raised the Selic rate to 15%, marking the seventh consecutive hike. Authorities anticipate elevated financing costs for longer to contain inflation, projected at 4.9% for 2025. 
  
• Mexico: Investment fell 4% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the second consecutive decline. The IMEF projects the economy won’t regain momentum until 2027, amid uncertainty surrounding the judicial reform and USMCA renegotiation. 

In a highly uncertain environment, discipline and analysis remain the foundation of a sound investment strategy. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In the United States, Powell will present his semiannual monetary policy report 06/24 
• In the United States, GDP data will be released 06/26 

Monitor 

Week of June 9–13 

Mixed inflation data, downward growth revisions, and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. set the tone for the week’s global economic narrative. 
Here’s a brief summary of the most relevant developments across major economies in recent days: 

• United States: May inflation rose just 0.1%, staying below expectations. The Fed is not expected to cut rates before September. The World Bank lowered 2025 GDP growth to 1.4%. Gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions. 

• Europe: Germany raised its 2025 growth forecast to 0.3%. An ECB policymaker said interest rates are well positioned, signaling a prolonged pause as inflation continues to ease. 

• China: Exports grew 4.8% year-over-year, but those to the U.S. fell 34.5%. Annual inflation declined, and producer prices also retreated.  

• Brazil: Inflation reached 0.26% in May, below the 0.33% forecast. The annual rate fell to 5.32%, reinforcing expectations of a pause in the Central Bank’s rate hike cycle. 

• Mexico: Inflation climbed to 4.42% year-over-year in the second half of May, its highest level in five months. The World Bank cut its 2025 growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.2%. 

Investing wisely isn’t about timing the market, but about staying informed, diversified, and avoiding impulsive decisions. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In the United States, the Fed policy announcement will take place 06/18 
• In the United States, Juneteenth will be observed (market closed) 06/19 

Monitor 

Week of June 2–6 

Volatile week for the markets, as tariffs and trade tensions once again captured investors’ attention. 

The economic environment continues to show mixed signals. While some indicators are improving, uncertainty remains around productive activity, inflation, and trade policies. Here are the most relevant data points from the week, by country: 

• United States: The OECD cut its growth forecast to 1.6% for this year, impacted by tariffs. Job openings rose in April, while the services sector contracted for the first time in 12 months. 

• Europe: Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.9%, below expectations. The ECB lowered its policy rate to 2%, and the services sector weakened, weighing on business activity. 

• China: Manufacturing posted its sharpest contraction since 2022, hit by weaker external demand linked to tariffs. 

• Brazil: The Central Bank reaffirmed its restrictive stance, while signaling flexibility to adjust monetary policy in light of new data. 

• Mexico: Remittances fell 12.1% year-over-year in April. Still, the OECD raised its growth forecast, citing potential relief in trade tensions. 

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” — Bernard Baruch 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In China, export and inflation data will be released 06/08–09 
• In the United States, May inflation data will be published 06/11 

Monitor