Mixed signals in the global economy: inflation, tariffs, and monetary policies shape the week

Week of June 2–6 

Volatile week for the markets, as tariffs and trade tensions once again captured investors’ attention. 

The economic environment continues to show mixed signals. While some indicators are improving, uncertainty remains around productive activity, inflation, and trade policies. Here are the most relevant data points from the week, by country: 

• United States: The OECD cut its growth forecast to 1.6% for this year, impacted by tariffs. Job openings rose in April, while the services sector contracted for the first time in 12 months. 

• Europe: Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.9%, below expectations. The ECB lowered its policy rate to 2%, and the services sector weakened, weighing on business activity. 

• China: Manufacturing posted its sharpest contraction since 2022, hit by weaker external demand linked to tariffs. 

• Brazil: The Central Bank reaffirmed its restrictive stance, while signaling flexibility to adjust monetary policy in light of new data. 

• Mexico: Remittances fell 12.1% year-over-year in April. Still, the OECD raised its growth forecast, citing potential relief in trade tensions. 

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” — Bernard Baruch 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In China, export and inflation data will be released 06/08–09 
• In the United States, May inflation data will be published 06/11 

Monitor