Rate Cuts in Sight: The Fed Adjusts Economic Forecasts

The Fed keeps rates at 4.25%-4.5% but revises growth and inflation projections.

March Monetary Policy Announcement 

 The Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5%, in line with expectations. However, its message was more cautious, as it lowered its growth forecast and raised its inflation estimate for 2025. 

Key Points: 

• Expectations for two rate cuts this year remain, with rates closing at 3.9%. 
• The pace of quantitative tightening is slowing, adjusting the reduction of bonds on the balance sheet. 
• The 2025 growth projection drops to 1.7% (from 2.1%). 
• Core inflation is estimated at 2.8%, above the previous 2.5% forecast. 
• Trade tensions are rising due to potential tariffs amid an economic slowdown. 

Markets will closely watch the Fed’s next moves and the evolution of trade tensions. 

Market Implications: 

 Markets will remain attentive to the Fed’s upcoming decisions and the development of trade tensions. 

Fed Indicator Update (March vs. December) 

Source: Federal Reserve