November Inflation Reinforces Expectations of Rate Cuts. 

The November inflation report could confirm a new interest rate cut.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a 0.3% increase, marking a slight acceleration after four consecutive months of 0.2% rises. On an annual basis, overall inflation stood at 2.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) advanced by 3.3%, both figures in line with expectations. 

Among the main factors driving this result was the increase in the housing component (shelter), which contributed nearly 40% of the monthly rise. Additionally, food prices rose by 0.4%, and the energy sector recorded a modest 0.2% increase. 

Excluding food and energy, other components such as housing, used cars, furniture, and healthcare showed significant increases, while the communication index was one of the few to register a decrease. 

In this context, market consensus predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point rate cut during its next meeting. This move reaffirms the Fed’s commitment to economic stability in an environment of moderate inflation and a strong labor market. 

Expectations for the benchmark interest rate 

Fuente: CME 

Annual change in inflation and core inflation   

Fuente: US Bureau of Labor Statistics