Initial impressions of the election results in Mexico

With an advance of approximately 95% of the votes counted, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, representing the ruling coalition (Morena, PT and Green Party), will be the first woman president in 200 years of independent life in the Mexican Republic. In this sense, it is noteworthy that her victory was overwhelming having counted ~59% of the votes, which represented a difference of more than 30 points against the opposition candidate. With this, Claudia Sheinbaum registered more votes than López Obrador obtained in the 2018 elections and becomes the president with the most votes in Mexico’s history. Claudia Sheinbaum was previously head of government of Mexico City (2018-2023), head of the Tlalpan mayor’s office (2015-2017) and secretary of the Environment (2000-2006). On the other hand, citizen participation ranged between 60% and 61.5%, lower than that seen in 2018 which was 63.4% and the average of the last five elections which stood at approximately 65%.

In this context, the ruling coalition won 7 of the candidacies that were at stake, with an outstanding victory in Mexico City, as well as the victory in the state of Yucatan, which was governed by the opposition for many years. Regarding the new conformation of the Congress, it is expected that the ruling coalition will reach the constitutional majority in the Congress of Deputies and by a very small margin will obtain a qualified majority in the Senate. Therefore, the Morena party consolidates for the third consecutive time (2018, 2021 and 2024) as the first force in the Congress of Deputies and for the second time in the Senate of the Republic (2018 and 2024). The new Legislature (LXVI) of the Congress will begin its functions on September 1, 2024, where President López Obrador’s mandate will come to an end on the 30th of that same month. That said, the new legislature will coincide with the current president for 30 days. The inauguration of the new president will be on October 1.

Finally, some of the challenges that this new government will face during the first half of its six-year term will be related to reducing the budget deficit (around 6%, the highest in 25 years), the elections in the United States, the review of the T-MEC, capitalizing on the opportunities linked to nearshoring, avoiding institutional weakening and reducing insecurity rates in the country.

Recomposition of states governed by the ruling coalition (Morena and allies) vs. opposition bloc (PRI – PAN) and Movimiento Ciudadano.

Source: Holland & Knight with information from INE