Weekly Summary

Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, April nonfarm payrolls registered 175,000 jobs (vs. 240,000 expected), the smallest gain in six months. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. 

• In the United States, the 1Q24 corporate reporting season is 72% complete, with 78% of the sample reporting higher earnings than expected and 56% reporting higher sales than expected.
  
• In China, services and manufacturing activities experienced a slowdown in their pace of expansion during April, suggesting a loss of momentum at the start of the second quarter.
  
• In Brazil, Moody’s reaffirmed the sovereign rating of Ba2 and changed the perspective to Positive from Stable.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• Export and inflation figures to be released in China 05/08 – 10
• In the U.S., several members of the FED will hold speeches 05/07 – 10

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the 1Q24 reporting season shows an advance of 33%. Seventy-nine percent of the sample has reported higher than expected earnings, while 54% have exceeded expectations in terms of sales.

• In the United States, the first revision of GDP for the first quarter of 2024 grew by an annualized 1.6%, considerably lower than the forecast of 2.4%.
  
• In China, the consensus slightly adjusted its forecast for economic growth this year to 4.8%, improving on the previous forecast of 4.6% and moving slightly closer to the government’s target of around 5% growth.
  
• In Mexico, inflation for the first two weeks of April accelerated to an annual rate of 4.63%, contrasting negatively with the previous reading of 4.37% and the consensus forecast of 4.47%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., there will be a monetary policy announcement from the FED 05/01
• In the United States, employment figures to be released 05/03

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Most outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond reached its highest level since November of last year, trading at approximately 4.6%.

• In the United States, the quarterly earnings season has only advanced by 14%, with S&P 500 profits growing annually by 9.4%. However, for the following week, there will be a greater volume of information as 42% of the sample will be reporting.
  
• In China, 1Q24 GDP advanced annually by 5.3%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.6% as well as the 5.2% of the previous quarter.

• In Mexico, the IMF lowered its economic growth expectation for this year to 2.4% from its previous estimate of 2.7%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, the first estimate of the GDP for the 1Q24 will be known 04/25
• In the United States, personal income and consumption will be published 04/26

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, March inflation advanced 0.4%, similar to February’s figure, although it exceeded expectations of 0.3%. This brought the annual rate to 3.5%.

• The quarterly reporting season for the first quarter of 2024 began in the United States with the results of some banks. By the 3^rd of May, more than 85% of the S&P 500 companies will have published their results.
  
• In China, Fitch cut the country’s sovereign debt outlook to “Negative”, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces growing uncertainty.

• In Mexico, the World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for this year from 2.6% to 2.3%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In China, important economic figures for March will be released 04/15
• In the U.S., the Beige Book will be published 04/17

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the U.S., March nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000 jobs, the highest in nearly a year and above expectations of 214,000.
  
• In the United States, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond touched its highest point since November of last year, trading at ~4.39%.

• In China, the March manufacturing PMI rebounded to its strongest level in more than a year, providing signs that the economy is beginning to stabilize.

• In Mexico, remittances for February totaled US$4.51bn, which implied an annual growth of 3.8%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, inflation to be published 04/10

• In the United States, the FED minutes will be released 04/10

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, it was a short week for markets and economic activity, with consumer confidence showing no substantial changes during March. 

• In the US, Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta FED estimated only one cut this year of 25bp, in contrast to his previous forecast of two cutbacks.
  
• In China, the profits of industrial companies grew by 10.2% YoY in February.

• In Brazil, the minutes of the last Central Bank meeting noted that discussions emerged about more modest cutbacks to the reference rate in the future, citing the risk of growing uncertainty both domestically and internationally.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, manufacturing and services indicators (ISM) will be released 04/1 – 3 
• In the United States, employment figures to be released 04/05

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*For this occasion, the yields are presented at the close of March 27.

Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the US, the Fed left the federal funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.5%, as widely expected. However, it reaffirmed that there will be three 25bp cuts in the remainder of the year.

• In the United States, the main economic indicators that stood out were the good results of the real estate sector in February.
   
• In China, retail sales grew 5.5% annually, exceeding expectations of 5.2%. On the other hand, industrial production increased by 7%, and exceeded estimates.
   
• For the first time in three years and in line with market expectations, the Bank of Mexico cut the reference rate by 25bp to 11%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., consumer confidence will be known 03/26
• In the U.S., the 4Q23 GDP to be published 03/28

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, February’s inflation advanced 0.4% in the month, reaching an annual rate of 3.2% from 3.1% in January and the 3.1% expected.

• In the United States, the FED’s monetary policy announcement will take place next week and the consensus indicates that there will be no change in the federal funds rate.
  
• In China, after four months of deflation, inflation accelerated in February by 0.7% annually. 

• A deputy governor of the Bank of Mexico stated that there is room to adjust the reference rate ahead of the next meeting on March 21st.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., there will be a monetary policy announcement from the FED 03/19 – 20
• In the U.S., housing sector indicators to be released 03/19 – 21

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the February nonfarm payroll rose in 275,000 jobs, exceeding the 200,000 job expectation. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7%. 

• In the United States, Jerome Powell told legislators that interest rate cutbacks will depend largely on the direction of the economy.
  
• In China, the government announced a growth target for this year of “around 5%” and the issuance of special bonds for large projects.

• In Brazil, the debt to GDP ratio rose to 75% in January, an increase of 70 basis points from December. This increase was due to the impact of accrued interest on debt.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, February’s inflation to be announced 03/12
• In the U.S., industrial production will be published. 03/15

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the second estimate of the 4Q23 GDP showed an annualized growth of 3.2%, slightly lower than the first revision of 3.3%.
   
• In the United States, the PCE index, a key inflation metric for the Fed, advanced 0.4% in January. This brought the annual rate to 2.8% and was in line with expectations.
   
• In China, manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month during February.

•  The Bank of Mexico downgraded its growth estimate for this year from 3% to 2.8%, due to the slowdown observed in the economy in the last quarter of 2023.     

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, ISM services and Beige Book will be published 03/5-6
• Employment figures to be released in the United States 03/08

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