Weekly Summary

Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, June inflation fell 0.1% on a monthly basis, bringing the annual figure to 3% (vs. 3.3% in May), its lowest level in about 3 years.

• In the U.S., the yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to ~4.19% from 4.28% last week and the odds of a September reference rate cut rose to 86% from 47% a month ago. 

• In China, inflation barely rose 0.2% annually in June, resulting below expectations.
  
• Most recent surveys indicate that analysts’ consensus estimates that the Bank of Mexico could cut its reference rate by 25 basis points to 10.75% from 11% at its next meeting. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In China, 2Q24 GDP to be announced 07/15

• In the United States, Beige Book and industrial production to be released 07/17

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, it was a short week for the markets, with manufacturing activity (ISM) contracting for the third consecutive month in June.
  
• In the United States, June nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000 jobs, slightly above the expectation of 200,000.

• In China, services expanded at their slowest pace in eight months due to a decline in new orders.
  
• In Mexico, the consensus of analysts consulted by the Bank of Mexico estimated that this year’s GDP could grow 2%, slightly below the 2.1% estimated in May.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, Jerome Powell will make a speech 07/09

• In the U.S., inflation figure to be released 07/11

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the stress tests applied by the FED to different financial institutions showed that they could face the scenario of a severe recession.
  
• In the United States, the latest revision of the 1Q24 GDP showed that the economy grew 1.4% annualized, slightly better than the previous estimate.

• In China, industrial company profits barely managed to grow 0.7% on a monthly basis in May, mainly due to the benefit of higher raw material prices.
  
• In line with expectations, the Bank of Mexico left the reference rate unchanged at 11%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, there will be FED minutes and jobs data 07/03 – 05
• In the U.S., there will be a holiday for the celebration of Independence Day 07/04

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, it was a short week for the markets, where the main economic standout was that retail sales for May grew marginally by 0.1%.
  
• In the U.S., several FED officials emphasized the need for more evidence of a decline in inflation before lowering interest rates.
  
• In China, the People’s Bank of China left its reference rates unchanged.

• In Mexico, the private sector announced the development of new investments for US$42bn during Claudia Sheinbaum’s six-year term. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, consumer confidence will be published 06/25
• In the U.S., final revision of the 1Q24 GDP to be released 06/27

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the US, the FED kept the reference rate range unchanged at 5.25 – 5.5%. On the other hand, it shared its macroeconomic expectations, where it highlighted that now only one 25bp cut could be seen for the remainder of the year, which contrasts with the three cuts expected in March.
  
• In the United States, May inflation slowed to 3.3% annually from 3.4% expected and from the previous month.

• In China, inflation advanced 0.3% annually in May, in line with April’s figure.
  
• In Mexico, the virtual president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, agreed with President López Obrador to immediately open a broad dialogue related to the reform of the Judiciary.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In China, retail sales and industrial production will be published. 06/17
• In the U.S., we will know the retail sales and FED members will speak 06/18

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the U.S., non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9%.
  
• In the U.S., ahead of the FED’s next announcement, the consensus widely discounts that the federal funds rate range will remain unchanged.  

• In China, May manufacturing activity advanced at its fastest pace in about two years. 

• Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, representing the ruling coalition, will be the first female president in 200 years of independent life in the Mexican Republic.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, there will be a FED announcement 06/11 – 12
• In China, inflation figures to be released 06/11

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the second revision to the Q1 2024 GDP showed an annualized growth of 1.3%, lower than the initial revision of 1.6%.
  
• In the United States, PCE (core) inflation for April, the indicator mostly monitored by the FED, advanced 0.2%, in line with expectations. Thus, annually it rose to 2.8%. 

• In China, the IMF raised its estimate for the country’s economic growth to 5% from 4.6%.
  
• In Mexico, on the eve of the presidential elections, the candidate of the current government, Claudia Sheinbaum, is widely leading in voting intentions. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, the ISM services and manufacturing will be published 06/03-04
• In the U.S., employment figures to be released 06/07

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the minutes of the FED’s last meeting confirmed its members’ view of persistent inflation, emphasizing that it may take longer to implement cuts.
  
• In the United States, JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon stressed that a “hard landing” for the economy could not be ruled out, as well as the possibility that interest rates could rise “a bit more”.
  
• In China, the country’s fiscal revenues fell 2.7% annually in the first four months of 2024.
  
• In Mexico, economic activity is expected to have advanced 1.7% annually in April, the lowest figure since January. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, Memorial Day will be commemorated  05/27
• In the United States, the second revision of the 1Q24 GDP will be released 05/30

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, April’s inflation decelerated to 3.4% annually, from 3.5% in the previous month. Core inflation fell to 3.6% annually from 3.8% in March, its lowest reading since April 2021.
  
• In the United States, there was less volatility in the markets with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial indexes touching record highs.
  
• In China, the government announced stimuli to support the real estate sector.
  
• In Brazil, Petrobras announced the departure of its CEO, Jean Paul Patres, and its CFO, Sergio Caetano.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, FED minutes to be published 05/22
• In the U.S., several members of the FED will hold speeches 05/15

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the quarterly reporting season is entering its final stage, with 88% of the companies having already presented their results. Of the sample, 78% have reported higher than expected earnings and 55% in terms of revenues.
  
• In the United States, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond continued to adjust downward, trading above 4.45%.
  
• In China, as anticipated by the consensus, exports rebounded 1.5% annually during April, from March’s 7.5% annual decline.
  
• The Bank of Mexico left the reference rate unchanged at 11%. The decision was unanimous and in line with expectations. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, Jerome Powell will give a speech 05/14
• In the U.S., April’s inflation will be released 05/15

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