Weekly Summary

Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the second revision to the Q1 2024 GDP showed an annualized growth of 1.3%, lower than the initial revision of 1.6%.
  
• In the United States, PCE (core) inflation for April, the indicator mostly monitored by the FED, advanced 0.2%, in line with expectations. Thus, annually it rose to 2.8%. 

• In China, the IMF raised its estimate for the country’s economic growth to 5% from 4.6%.
  
• In Mexico, on the eve of the presidential elections, the candidate of the current government, Claudia Sheinbaum, is widely leading in voting intentions. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, the ISM services and manufacturing will be published 06/03-04
• In the U.S., employment figures to be released 06/07

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the minutes of the FED’s last meeting confirmed its members’ view of persistent inflation, emphasizing that it may take longer to implement cuts.
  
• In the United States, JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon stressed that a “hard landing” for the economy could not be ruled out, as well as the possibility that interest rates could rise “a bit more”.
  
• In China, the country’s fiscal revenues fell 2.7% annually in the first four months of 2024.
  
• In Mexico, economic activity is expected to have advanced 1.7% annually in April, the lowest figure since January. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, Memorial Day will be commemorated  05/27
• In the United States, the second revision of the 1Q24 GDP will be released 05/30

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, April’s inflation decelerated to 3.4% annually, from 3.5% in the previous month. Core inflation fell to 3.6% annually from 3.8% in March, its lowest reading since April 2021.
  
• In the United States, there was less volatility in the markets with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial indexes touching record highs.
  
• In China, the government announced stimuli to support the real estate sector.
  
• In Brazil, Petrobras announced the departure of its CEO, Jean Paul Patres, and its CFO, Sergio Caetano.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, FED minutes to be published 05/22
• In the U.S., several members of the FED will hold speeches 05/15

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the quarterly reporting season is entering its final stage, with 88% of the companies having already presented their results. Of the sample, 78% have reported higher than expected earnings and 55% in terms of revenues.
  
• In the United States, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond continued to adjust downward, trading above 4.45%.
  
• In China, as anticipated by the consensus, exports rebounded 1.5% annually during April, from March’s 7.5% annual decline.
  
• The Bank of Mexico left the reference rate unchanged at 11%. The decision was unanimous and in line with expectations. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, Jerome Powell will give a speech 05/14
• In the U.S., April’s inflation will be released 05/15

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, April nonfarm payrolls registered 175,000 jobs (vs. 240,000 expected), the smallest gain in six months. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. 

• In the United States, the 1Q24 corporate reporting season is 72% complete, with 78% of the sample reporting higher earnings than expected and 56% reporting higher sales than expected.
  
• In China, services and manufacturing activities experienced a slowdown in their pace of expansion during April, suggesting a loss of momentum at the start of the second quarter.
  
• In Brazil, Moody’s reaffirmed the sovereign rating of Ba2 and changed the perspective to Positive from Stable.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• Export and inflation figures to be released in China 05/08 – 10
• In the U.S., several members of the FED will hold speeches 05/07 – 10

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the 1Q24 reporting season shows an advance of 33%. Seventy-nine percent of the sample has reported higher than expected earnings, while 54% have exceeded expectations in terms of sales.

• In the United States, the first revision of GDP for the first quarter of 2024 grew by an annualized 1.6%, considerably lower than the forecast of 2.4%.
  
• In China, the consensus slightly adjusted its forecast for economic growth this year to 4.8%, improving on the previous forecast of 4.6% and moving slightly closer to the government’s target of around 5% growth.
  
• In Mexico, inflation for the first two weeks of April accelerated to an annual rate of 4.63%, contrasting negatively with the previous reading of 4.37% and the consensus forecast of 4.47%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., there will be a monetary policy announcement from the FED 05/01
• In the United States, employment figures to be released 05/03

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Most outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond reached its highest level since November of last year, trading at approximately 4.6%.

• In the United States, the quarterly earnings season has only advanced by 14%, with S&P 500 profits growing annually by 9.4%. However, for the following week, there will be a greater volume of information as 42% of the sample will be reporting.
  
• In China, 1Q24 GDP advanced annually by 5.3%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.6% as well as the 5.2% of the previous quarter.

• In Mexico, the IMF lowered its economic growth expectation for this year to 2.4% from its previous estimate of 2.7%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, the first estimate of the GDP for the 1Q24 will be known 04/25
• In the United States, personal income and consumption will be published 04/26

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, March inflation advanced 0.4%, similar to February’s figure, although it exceeded expectations of 0.3%. This brought the annual rate to 3.5%.

• The quarterly reporting season for the first quarter of 2024 began in the United States with the results of some banks. By the 3^rd of May, more than 85% of the S&P 500 companies will have published their results.
  
• In China, Fitch cut the country’s sovereign debt outlook to “Negative”, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces growing uncertainty.

• In Mexico, the World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for this year from 2.6% to 2.3%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In China, important economic figures for March will be released 04/15
• In the U.S., the Beige Book will be published 04/17

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the U.S., March nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000 jobs, the highest in nearly a year and above expectations of 214,000.
  
• In the United States, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond touched its highest point since November of last year, trading at ~4.39%.

• In China, the March manufacturing PMI rebounded to its strongest level in more than a year, providing signs that the economy is beginning to stabilize.

• In Mexico, remittances for February totaled US$4.51bn, which implied an annual growth of 3.8%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, inflation to be published 04/10

• In the United States, the FED minutes will be released 04/10

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, it was a short week for markets and economic activity, with consumer confidence showing no substantial changes during March. 

• In the US, Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta FED estimated only one cut this year of 25bp, in contrast to his previous forecast of two cutbacks.
  
• In China, the profits of industrial companies grew by 10.2% YoY in February.

• In Brazil, the minutes of the last Central Bank meeting noted that discussions emerged about more modest cutbacks to the reference rate in the future, citing the risk of growing uncertainty both domestically and internationally.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, manufacturing and services indicators (ISM) will be released 04/1 – 3 
• In the United States, employment figures to be released 04/05

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*For this occasion, the yields are presented at the close of March 27.