Weekly Summary

Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, in virtually the last week of quarterly reports, reflecting an 82% advance, 77% of companies have posted better than expected earnings.

• In the U.S., the FED’s minutes expressed the concern of most of its members about cutting back interest rates too soon.
  
• In China, the People’s Bank cutback the 5-year reference rate by 25bp to 3.95% for the first time since June.
  
• In Mexico, inflation in the first half of February decelerated to 4.45% annually, from 4.87% in January, and was better than the 4.7% estimate.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, consumer confidence will be known 02/27
• In the United States, various real estate sector indicators will be published 02/26-29

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, inflation in January increased by 0.3% for the month, reaching an annual rate of 3.1% (compared to the expected 2.9%).

• In the United States, as we head into the final stretch of the 4Q23 quarterly reporting season, there has been 72% progress, with 78% of the sample outperforming on earnings and 52% outperforming on sales.
  
• In China, there were no activities during the week, mainly due to the celebration of the Lunar New Year.
  
• In Mexico, the government issued a decree to exempt PEMEX from paying taxes for a period of four months to support the company.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, President’s Day will be celebrated and there will be no activities 02/19
• In the United States, the FED’s minutes will be released 02/21

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, Jerome Powell reaffirmed that there will be no cut in the reference rate in March and urged patience. 
  
• In the United States, the 4Q23 quarterly reporting season has advanced 60%, in which 78% of the sample has published higher earnings than expected.

• In China, the securities regulator announced measures to stabilize the financial markets, highlighting the “zero tolerance” policy against short selling, insider trading and fraudulent share issuance.
  
• In line with expectations, the Bank of Mexico did not modify the reference rate above a maximum of 11.25%.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., inflation figures will be released 02/13
• In the United States, retail sales will be released 02/15

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, in a decision widely anticipated by the market, the Federal Reserve (FED) again kept the federal funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%.
  
• In the United States, the 2023 fourth quarter reporting season is 37% complete, with 78% of the sample reporting higher than expected earnings.
  
• In China, the manufacturing PMI contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January, although positively in line with consensus forecasts.
  
• In Mexico, the IMF upgraded its economic growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.1% for 2024. This is due to the momentum of the U.S. economy, as well as the good performance of domestic demand.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., several members of the FED will hold speeches 02/5-7
• Inflation figures to be released in China 02/7

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, the first revision of the 4Q23 GDP showed annualized growth of 3.3%, better than the estimate of 2%. Personal consumption advanced 2.8%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%.
  
• In the United States, the 4Q23 reporting season is about 25% ahead. So far, S&P 500 companies’ earnings are down 1.6% year over year (YoY). 
  
• In China, the People’s Bank announced that the reserve requirement of banks will be lowered by 50bp as of February 5, thereby providing liquidity of $1 trillion yuan (US$139.8bn).
  
• Throughout 2023, Mexico received US$43.9bn in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. This implied a growth of 21% compared to 2022, as well as the highest figure since 2013. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., there will be a monetary policy announcement from the FED 01/31
• Employment figures to be released in the United States 02/02

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, December retail sales rose 0.6% and exceeded expectations of 0.4%. For the full year 2023, sales advanced 5.6%.
  
• In the United States, the fourth quarter 2023 reporting season is in a preliminary stage. So far, the sample is 6% ahead, with 66% reporting higher earnings than expected.
  
• In China, the economy grew 5.2% during the last three months of last year, below expectations of 5.3%.

• In Mexico, consumer confidence reached a level even higher than pre-Covid-19 pandemic records.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In Europe, monetary policy announcement will be made 01/25
• In the United States, the 4Q23 GDP to be released 01/25 

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, December inflation accelerated 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% estimate. With this, annual inflation stood at 3.4% (versus the 3.2% estimate and 3.1% in November).
  
• In the United States, the 4Q23 quarterly reporting season began with reports from banks such as JP Morgan, Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo; overall they showed weak results.
  
• In China, exports rose 2.3% annually in December, up from 0.5% growth in November and an expected 1.7%.

• In Mexico, inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month in December, registering a monthly variation of 0.71%. Thus, the year 2023 ended with an annual rate of 4.66%. 

Important events in the coming Week

• In the United States, the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday will be celebrated. 01/15
• In the U.S., Beige Book and consumer confidence to be released 01/17-19

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Most Outstanding Points of the Week

• In the United States, non-farm payrolls revealed the creation of 216,000 jobs in December, exceeding expectations of 168,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.
  
• In the United States, the FED minutes showed that there is still a possibility of a reference rate cutback this year, although a message of caution prevailed.
  
• In China, manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in December and came in weaker than consensus expectations.
  
• In Mexico, the government carried out a global issuance that reached US$7.5bn (the largest so far in this administration) through the placement of three bonds at different maturities. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the U.S., several members of the FED will hold speeches 01/08 – 12
• In the US, December inflation to be released 01/11

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