Weekly Summary

Week of February 23–27

Markets are balancing solid earnings, evolving trade policy, and diverging inflation trends across regions. While growth remains resilient in some economies, policy uncertainty and valuation levels continue to guide investor positioning.

United States

The Supreme Court struck down “emergency” tariffs due to lack of Congressional approval. The Administration introduced a new 10% global tariff. PPI rose 0.5% in January, core at 3.6%. Earnings remain strong, while jobless claims suggest a steady labor market and a Fed on hold.

Europe

Eurozone inflation eased to 1.7%, below the ECB target range, with core at 2.2%. Germany’s inflation moderated to 1.9%, though services remain elevated. Business confidence improved, but consumer sentiment softened amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Japan

The leading economic index reached its highest level since May 2024, supported by labor strength. Services inflation rose 2.6%, reflecting wage pressures. Consumer sentiment weakened due to higher costs and interest rates.

China

The IMF urged China to shift toward consumption-led growth and reduce industrial subsidies, aiming to address external imbalances following record trade surpluses.

Argentina

Economic activity rose 3.5% year-over-year, led by agriculture and mining. Retail sales increased 16.1% nominally, though real consumption declined due to inflation pressures.

Brazil

Brazil posted a primary surplus below expectations, as spending growth outpaced revenue gains, adding pressure to fiscal balance targets.

Mexico

Inflation rose to 3.92% in early February, with core easing slightly. Economic activity expanded 3.3% in December, but unemployment increased to 2.7%, with over 700,000 jobs lost in January.

“Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you’d be content to own it in the absence of any market.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, manufacturing PMI will be released on 03/02
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 03/05

Monitor

Week of February 16–20

The week brought signs of slowing growth in the U.S., persistent inflation pressures in Europe, and ongoing adjustments across Asia and Latin America. Markets remain focused on inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.

United States

Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4%, below expectations, impacted by the government shutdown. The Fed maintained a restrictive tone amid persistent inflation and rising oil prices driven by tensions with Iran.

Europe

Germany posted 2.1% inflation and weaker investor confidence. In the U.K., inflation eased to 3.0%, but unemployment rose to 5.2%, reinforcing expectations of a potential rate cut.

Japan

The economy grew 0.2% in 2025, below forecasts. Inflation moderated, while exports surged 16.8%, narrowing the trade deficit.

China

State-owned enterprises are set to acquire real estate projects to reduce excess supply and stabilize the property market, potentially easing economic headwinds.

Argentina

A trade surplus is projected for January, supported by stronger exports and lower imports, reinforcing the Central Bank’s reserve accumulation.

Brazil

Economic activity expanded 2.5% in 2025, driven by the agricultural sector. The environment remains shaped by restrictive interest rates aimed at containing inflation.

Mexico

Manufacturing employment declined 2% in 2025. Banxico is evaluating potential rate adjustments amid 3.77% inflation, while Fitch warned of challenges to the 2026–2030 infrastructure plan.

“The longer you can extend your time horizon the less competitive the game becomes.” – Howard Marks

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, employment-related data will be released on 02/24
• In the United States, Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data will be released on 02/27

Monitor

February 9–13

The global economy continues to show moderate growth, with inflation easing in developed markets while emerging markets face more persistent pressures. Central banks remain focused on stability and monitoring macro risks.

United States
Employment surprised to the upside and inflation continues to moderate, giving the Fed room to keep rates steady. Corporate earnings remain strong, with solid profit growth and a high share of positive earnings surprises.

Europe
The eurozone posted moderate growth, led by Ireland and Spain. The U.K. continues to show weak growth but early signs of housing recovery, while policymakers focus on strengthening regional competitiveness.

Japan
Corporate bankruptcies reached a 13-year high due to rising labor costs and worker shortages, particularly impacting SMEs, amid weak real wage growth.

China
Low inflation and persistent deflationary pressure reinforce expectations for additional stimulus. Structural weakness in the real estate sector continues.

Argentina
Inflation accelerated again, driven by food and services, maintaining pressure on purchasing power and macro expectations.

Brazil
Inflation rose due to housing and transportation, while producer prices remain in a deflationary trend, reflecting easing upstream cost pressures.

Mexico
Core inflation remains elevated, led by services. Industrial activity shows moderate recovery, while the auto sector faces external trade pressures.

Week of February 2 – 6

The week delivered mixed signals: strong corporate earnings resilience in the U.S., moderating inflation in Europe, and some slowdown across parts of LatAm, while Asia shows early signs of stabilization in industrial activity.

United States

Private job growth slowed, but manufacturing and services remain resilient. Earnings season remains strong, with 80% of companies beating estimates and earnings growing 15% year over year.

Europe

The ECB held rates steady as inflation continues to moderate. Germany posted an industrial rebound, while the BoE showed internal divisions on the rate path.

Japan

Manufacturing returned to expansion after several months of contraction, and services reached their highest level in nearly a year, signaling a gradual recovery in activity.

China

Manufacturing strengthened on higher external demand and production, supporting factory hiring and suggesting stabilization in the industrial cycle.

Argentina

A new agreement with the U.S. on critical minerals aims to accelerate investment and exports, following a record year for the mining sector.

Brazil

Private-sector activity stalled as manufacturing weakness offset services growth, weighing on employment and increasing input costs.

Mexico

Banxico paused rate cuts amid persistent inflation. Remittances declined after record years, and manufacturing remains weak due to tariffs and softer external demand.

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on 02/11
• In the United States, the Inflation report will be released on 02/13

Monitor

Week of January 26 to 30 

Global markets reflect a balance between solid growth in developed economies, persistent inflationary pressures in certain sectors, and ongoing monetary policy adjustments in emerging markets.

United States

The Fed kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% amid solid growth and stable employment. PPI rose 0.5% month on month, and the trade deficit widened in November, potentially weighing on Q4 GDP.

Europe

Eurozone GDP grew 1.3% YoY in Q4 2025, exceeding expectations. Germany expanded 0.4% YoY, with inflation rising due to food prices, while services inflation eased and consumer confidence improved.

Japan

Service-sector prices rose 2.6% YoY in December. Labor shortages and a weaker yen are pushing costs higher, reinforcing the BoJ’s case for continued monetary policy normalization.

China

The government will prioritize domestic consumption of goods and services in 2026 to reduce industrial overcapacity and external dependence, supporting sectors such as tourism, transportation, and digital services.

Argentina

The IMF reaffirmed a 4% growth outlook for Argentina in 2026 and 2027. Globally, it projects 3.3% growth, conditioned by trade tensions, technology investment, and political uncertainty.

Brazil

Brazil’s Central Bank kept its policy rate at 15.00%. A prolonged pause is expected amid risks from services inflation and FX volatility, with the goal of converging to the 3.2% inflation target by 2027.

Mexico

Mexico’s economy grew 0.7% in 2025, beating expectations. Exports rose 7.6%, driven by non-automotive manufacturing. Unemployment ended the year at 2.4%, and Banxico is considering gradual rate cuts.

Key upcoming events 

• In the United States, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released on 02/02 
• In the United States, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on 02/06 

“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.” – Charlie Munger 

Monitor

Week of January 19–23 

Global markets reflect a balance between resilient growth, easing inflation in some regions, and persistent pressures in others, shaping monetary policy expectations and economic activity in 2025. 

United States 

Q3 GDP was revised up to a 4.4% annualized rate, driven by exports, business investment, and strong consumer spending. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 3.50%–3.75% this quarter, reflecting a cautious stance amid mixed economic data. 

Europe 

Eurozone inflation closed 2025 at 1.9%, below the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Germany’s economic confidence improved after several difficult quarters, while the United Kingdom continues to face persistent inflation pressures that complicate monetary policy decisions. 

Japan 

Inflation eased to 2.1% year over year in December. Lower energy prices offset underlying pressures, although core inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target, maintaining uncertainty about future monetary adjustments. 

China 

GDP grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter, weighed down significantly by the real estate sector. Weak consumption contrasts with a late-year rebound in industrial production, reflecting an uneven economic landscape that requires targeted stimulus measures.

Argentina 

Economic activity fell 0.3% year over year in November, its first contraction in 14 months, despite solid performance in agriculture and mining sectors. The economy shows signs of weakness in other key sectors. 

Brazil 

Business confidence improved slightly but remains in pessimistic territory. Concerns persist about the pace of the domestic economic recovery, with worries about sustained medium-term growth. 

Mexico 

Inflation rose in the first half of the year, while consumption remained strong, supported by higher retail sales and e-commerce growth. The consumer dynamics contrast with moderation in other economic indicators. 

Key upcoming events 

• In the United States, the FED monetary policy decision will be announced on January 28 
• In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on January 30 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.” – Charlie Munger 

Monitor

Week December 15–19 

In a relatively calm week, employment and consumption indicators provided key signals across major economies. Central bank decisions continue to reflect a cautious, data – dependent approach, while global economies show divergences between production and consumption that reinforce the need for selective analysis heading into 2025.

United States 

• Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, adding 64,000 jobs in November. 
• The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. 
• Headline inflation eased to 2.7% and core inflation to 2.6%. 

Europe 

• The ECB held rates at 2.15% and revised its growth outlook. 
• Eurozone inflation stood at 2.1%. 
• Germany and Spain recorded 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively. 
• The United Kingdom cut its policy rate to 3.75%. 

China 

• Industrial production grew 4.8% year over year in November. 
• Retail sales rose just 1.3%, the weakest increase since December 2022. 
• Sharp declines in automobiles, household appliances, and construction materials. 

Argentina 

• GDP expanded 3.3% year over year in 3Q, below expectations. 
• Manufacturing output declined 2.4%. 
• The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, approaching historical lows. 

Brazil 

• Economic activity declined 0.2% month over month. 
• Agriculture helped prevent a deeper contraction. 
• The central bank revised its GDP growth forecast upward and maintained a restrictive stance to contain inflation. 

Mexico 

• Banxico cut its policy rate to 7%. 
• Retail sales increased 3.4% year over year, driven by strong online sales. 
• Employment in the sector rose 1%, while wages increased 3.3%. 

“The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.” — Charlie Munger 

Key Upcoming Events 

• United States: Quarterly GDP growth release — December 23 
• United States: Labor market data release — December 24 

Monitor 

Returns as of 10 AM EST 

Week December 8–12 

Markets reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut amid a set of mixed signals on inflation, production, and employment across major economies. The week was shaped by U.S. labor data, an industrial rebound in Europe, and contrasting dynamics in Asia and Latin America, reinforcing a cautious outlook for monetary policy heading into 2026. 

United States 

• The Fed cut rates to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, with three dissenting votes. 
• Policymakers signaled only one additional adjustment in 2026. 
• Labor cost growth moderated. 
• Job openings remained stable, pointing to easing wage pressures. 

Europe (Germany) 

• Industrial production rose 1.8% in October, the strongest increase since March. 
• Growth was driven by machinery and electronics. 
• Exports increased 0.1%, supported by intra-EU trade, despite weaker shipments to the U.S. and China. 

Japan 

• Producer prices rose 2.7% year over year in November, unchanged from the previous month. 
• The strongest increases were seen in nonferrous metals and food & beverages. 

China 

• Annual inflation rebounded to 0.7%, the highest level since February. 
• Food prices rose for the first time in ten months. 
• Producer prices fell 2.2%, extending a 38-month contraction amid weak domestic demand. 

Brazil 

• Annual inflation declined to 4.46%, its lowest level since September 2024. 
• The Central Bank held its policy rate at 15.00%. 
• Authorities signaled a prolonged pause to ensure convergence toward the inflation target. 

Mexico 

• Inflation rose to 3.80% year over year, the highest reading since June. 
• Auto production fell 8.4% year over year in November. 
• Year-to-date, production is down 1.5%. 

“The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.” 
— Seth Klarman 

Key Upcoming Events 

• United States: Nonfarm payrolls report — December 16 
• United States: November inflation report — December 18 

Monitor 

Returns as of market close on December 11. 

Week: December 1–5 

Markets ended the week focused on the persistent weakness in global manufacturing activity and the continued loss of momentum in the U.S. labor market. In this environment, expectations for a potential interest rate cut before year-end strengthened. Europe and Asia showed mixed signals, while Latin America posted contrasting results across growth and income indicators. 

United States: 

• Manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month, while the services sector recorded its strongest expansion in nine months. 
• Private employers cut 32,000 jobs, reinforcing expectations of a December rate cut, now priced with an 87% probability. 

Europe: 

• The Bank of England reduced capital requirements for the first time since 2008 in an effort to stimulate lending. 
• Eurozone inflation reached 2.2% year over year, with services remaining the main driver. 

Japan: 

• The services sector maintained a solid pace of expansion in November, supported by rising new orders and improved business confidence. 

China: 

• Manufacturing contracted for the eighth straight month, while services grew at their slowest pace in five months. 
• Analysts expect additional expansionary measures to help sustain a growth target near 5% in 2026. 

Brazil: 

• GDP grew 1.8% year over year in 3Q25, its weakest reading since 2022. 
• Agriculture and industry remained the main contributors despite the slowdown. 

Mexico: 

• Remittances fell 1.7% year over year in October, marking the smallest decline since April. 
• The minimum wage will increase 13% in 2026 to 315.04 pesos per day, a cumulative rise of 150% since 2018. 

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• United States: Employment data release — Dec 9 
• United States: Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement — Dec 10 

Monitor

November 24–26 

In a holiday-shortened week, U.S. labor data and inflation trends in Latin America took center stage. Expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move are once again driving market sentiment. 

United States: 

• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since April, and layoffs continued to rise, pushing the probability of a December rate cut to 84%, up from 39% the previous week. 

Europe: 

• Business confidence in Germany unexpectedly weakened. In the United Kingdom, the new fiscal budget includes tax increases amid an environment of sluggish economic growth. 

Japan: 

• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi heightened diplomatic tensions with China after stating that Japan could intervene if Beijing acts against Taiwan, adding uncertainty to the regional outlook. 

China: 

• Industrial profits fell 5.5% in October, while the government adopted a firmer stance regarding Taiwan, amplifying geopolitical risks across Asia. 

Brazil: 

• Annual inflation slowed to 4.50% in November, returning to the central bank’s target range for the first time since January—an outcome welcomed by markets. 

Mexico: 

• Inflation rose to 3.61% in the first half of November. Banxico revised its 2025 growth forecast down from 0.6% to 0.3%, while keeping its 2026 estimate unchanged at 1.1%. 

“The thesis underlying everything, whether you’re an actively managed fund or a passive fund, is that the U.S. will be OK. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be in the stock market.” — Peter Lynch 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• United States: Second estimate of Q3 2025 GDP and ISM Manufacturing — December 2 
• United States: ISM Services Index — December 3 

Monitor