Weekly Summary

Week December 15–19 

In a relatively calm week, employment and consumption indicators provided key signals across major economies. Central bank decisions continue to reflect a cautious, data – dependent approach, while global economies show divergences between production and consumption that reinforce the need for selective analysis heading into 2025.

United States 

• Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, adding 64,000 jobs in November. 
• The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. 
• Headline inflation eased to 2.7% and core inflation to 2.6%. 

Europe 

• The ECB held rates at 2.15% and revised its growth outlook. 
• Eurozone inflation stood at 2.1%. 
• Germany and Spain recorded 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively. 
• The United Kingdom cut its policy rate to 3.75%. 

China 

• Industrial production grew 4.8% year over year in November. 
• Retail sales rose just 1.3%, the weakest increase since December 2022. 
• Sharp declines in automobiles, household appliances, and construction materials. 

Argentina 

• GDP expanded 3.3% year over year in 3Q, below expectations. 
• Manufacturing output declined 2.4%. 
• The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, approaching historical lows. 

Brazil 

• Economic activity declined 0.2% month over month. 
• Agriculture helped prevent a deeper contraction. 
• The central bank revised its GDP growth forecast upward and maintained a restrictive stance to contain inflation. 

Mexico 

• Banxico cut its policy rate to 7%. 
• Retail sales increased 3.4% year over year, driven by strong online sales. 
• Employment in the sector rose 1%, while wages increased 3.3%. 

“The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.” — Charlie Munger 

Key Upcoming Events 

• United States: Quarterly GDP growth release — December 23 
• United States: Labor market data release — December 24 

Monitor 

Returns as of 10 AM EST 

Week December 8–12 

Markets reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut amid a set of mixed signals on inflation, production, and employment across major economies. The week was shaped by U.S. labor data, an industrial rebound in Europe, and contrasting dynamics in Asia and Latin America, reinforcing a cautious outlook for monetary policy heading into 2026. 

United States 

• The Fed cut rates to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, with three dissenting votes. 
• Policymakers signaled only one additional adjustment in 2026. 
• Labor cost growth moderated. 
• Job openings remained stable, pointing to easing wage pressures. 

Europe (Germany) 

• Industrial production rose 1.8% in October, the strongest increase since March. 
• Growth was driven by machinery and electronics. 
• Exports increased 0.1%, supported by intra-EU trade, despite weaker shipments to the U.S. and China. 

Japan 

• Producer prices rose 2.7% year over year in November, unchanged from the previous month. 
• The strongest increases were seen in nonferrous metals and food & beverages. 

China 

• Annual inflation rebounded to 0.7%, the highest level since February. 
• Food prices rose for the first time in ten months. 
• Producer prices fell 2.2%, extending a 38-month contraction amid weak domestic demand. 

Brazil 

• Annual inflation declined to 4.46%, its lowest level since September 2024. 
• The Central Bank held its policy rate at 15.00%. 
• Authorities signaled a prolonged pause to ensure convergence toward the inflation target. 

Mexico 

• Inflation rose to 3.80% year over year, the highest reading since June. 
• Auto production fell 8.4% year over year in November. 
• Year-to-date, production is down 1.5%. 

“The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.” 
— Seth Klarman 

Key Upcoming Events 

• United States: Nonfarm payrolls report — December 16 
• United States: November inflation report — December 18 

Monitor 

Returns as of market close on December 11. 

Week: December 1–5 

Markets ended the week focused on the persistent weakness in global manufacturing activity and the continued loss of momentum in the U.S. labor market. In this environment, expectations for a potential interest rate cut before year-end strengthened. Europe and Asia showed mixed signals, while Latin America posted contrasting results across growth and income indicators. 

United States: 

• Manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month, while the services sector recorded its strongest expansion in nine months. 
• Private employers cut 32,000 jobs, reinforcing expectations of a December rate cut, now priced with an 87% probability. 

Europe: 

• The Bank of England reduced capital requirements for the first time since 2008 in an effort to stimulate lending. 
• Eurozone inflation reached 2.2% year over year, with services remaining the main driver. 

Japan: 

• The services sector maintained a solid pace of expansion in November, supported by rising new orders and improved business confidence. 

China: 

• Manufacturing contracted for the eighth straight month, while services grew at their slowest pace in five months. 
• Analysts expect additional expansionary measures to help sustain a growth target near 5% in 2026. 

Brazil: 

• GDP grew 1.8% year over year in 3Q25, its weakest reading since 2022. 
• Agriculture and industry remained the main contributors despite the slowdown. 

Mexico: 

• Remittances fell 1.7% year over year in October, marking the smallest decline since April. 
• The minimum wage will increase 13% in 2026 to 315.04 pesos per day, a cumulative rise of 150% since 2018. 

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• United States: Employment data release — Dec 9 
• United States: Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement — Dec 10 

Monitor

November 24–26 

In a holiday-shortened week, U.S. labor data and inflation trends in Latin America took center stage. Expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move are once again driving market sentiment. 

United States: 

• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since April, and layoffs continued to rise, pushing the probability of a December rate cut to 84%, up from 39% the previous week. 

Europe: 

• Business confidence in Germany unexpectedly weakened. In the United Kingdom, the new fiscal budget includes tax increases amid an environment of sluggish economic growth. 

Japan: 

• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi heightened diplomatic tensions with China after stating that Japan could intervene if Beijing acts against Taiwan, adding uncertainty to the regional outlook. 

China: 

• Industrial profits fell 5.5% in October, while the government adopted a firmer stance regarding Taiwan, amplifying geopolitical risks across Asia. 

Brazil: 

• Annual inflation slowed to 4.50% in November, returning to the central bank’s target range for the first time since January—an outcome welcomed by markets. 

Mexico: 

• Inflation rose to 3.61% in the first half of November. Banxico revised its 2025 growth forecast down from 0.6% to 0.3%, while keeping its 2026 estimate unchanged at 1.1%. 

“The thesis underlying everything, whether you’re an actively managed fund or a passive fund, is that the U.S. will be OK. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be in the stock market.” — Peter Lynch 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• United States: Second estimate of Q3 2025 GDP and ISM Manufacturing — December 2 
• United States: ISM Services Index — December 3 

Monitor

November 17–21 

The U.S. labor market returned to the spotlight this week, while Europe maintained a stable tone and Japan showed signs of cooling. In Mexico, foreign direct investment continued to strengthen. Here are the key topics to watch. 

United States: 

• The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, above expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. 
• The Fed remains divided, and the probability of a December rate cut currently stands at 40%. 

Europe: 

• Inflation remains stable near 2%, and the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at least through the end of 2026. 
• In the UK, inflation fell to 3.6%, potentially opening the door for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December. 

Japan: 

• GDP fell 1.8% annualized in the third quarter, with a quarterly contraction of 0.4%. 
• Exports were the main drag, reflecting a weaker external backdrop. 

China: 

• For the sixth consecutive month, the central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged. 
• The decision was in line with expectations as the economy seeks stability amid domestic challenges. 

Mexico: 

• FDI grew 14.5% year-over-year from January to September, surpassing $40 billion. 
• Economic activity showed no change in October, both month-over-month and compared with the same month in 2024. 

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• U.S.: Beige Book release — 11/26 
• U.S.: Thanksgiving Day (market holiday) — 11/27 

Monitor

Week: Week of November 11-15 

Markets moved through a week of soft economic activity in the U.S. and mixed signals across global regions. Key developments included monetary policy adjustments, moderate growth figures, and relevant updates on inflation and employment. This backdrop underscores the importance of analyzing structural trends, not just short-term market moves. 

• United States: The agreement to fund the government through January ended the longest shutdown on record, while the Fed showed mixed views on future rate cuts. The technology sector remained volatile amid valuation concerns. 

• Europe: The U.K. labor market weakened, with unemployment rising to 5.0%—its highest level since 2021. 3Q25 growth slowed, reinforcing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. The eurozone economy continued to expand at a modest pace in the third quarter. 

• Japan: The Bank of Japan reiterated that it aims for moderate inflation supported by wage growth and improving economic conditions, in line with the government’s broader growth strategy. 

• China: Producer prices fell 2.1% year over year—less than expected—while consumer inflation rose 0.2%, reversing two months of declines. Industrial production and retail sales also delivered weak readings. 

• Brazil: Monthly inflation rose 0.09%, helped by lower electricity tariffs, while the annual figure dropped to 4.68%. The central bank is preparing additional regulations to address the increase in cyberattacks. 

• Mexico: Industrial activity fell 3.3% in September, marking seven consecutive months of contraction. Banxico expects inflation to converge to 3% by 3Q26 and anticipates only limited impact from new taxes. 

“We don’t prognosticate macroeconomic factors; we’re looking at our companies from a bottom-up perspective on their long-run prospects of returning.” – Mellody Hobson 

Key Upcoming Events:  

• United States: Industrial production – 11/18. 
• United States: Federal Reserve minutes – 11/19. 

Monitor

November 3–7

Markets reflected a week of steady interest rates, weaker manufacturing data, and resilience in services. In the United States, the government shutdown remains unresolved, while year-end spending shows a more moderate tone compared with 2024. 

United States: 
Concerns over AI valuations drove market sentiment. Manufacturing activity declined, but the services sector rebounded. The government shutdown set a new record, and year-end spending is expected to moderate. 

Europe: 
Eurozone manufacturing stalled due to a lack of new orders, although production continued to grow. The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 4%, as expected. 

Asia: 
In Japan, manufacturing posted its worst reading in more than a year, pressured by weak demand in autos and semiconductors. The services sector remained resilient despite a slower pace of new orders. 
In China, manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in six months. Services expanded but at the slowest pace since July, mainly due to weaker export demand. 

Latin America: 
In Brazil, the Central Bank held its key rate at 15%, the highest level since 2006, indicating caution amid persistent inflationary pressures. 
In Mexico, Banco de México cut its policy rate to 7.25%, in line with expectations. September remittances fell 2.7% YoY, though they remain above $5 billion. 

“The investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham 

Important Events: 

• U.S. October inflation data will be released — November 13 
• U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published — November 14 

Monitor

Week: October 27-31 

The week was marked by mixed signals in global markets following a series of key events. These included the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) second consecutive policy rate cut, the extension of the tariff truce between the United States and China, the stagnation of the German economy, and the improvement in China’s industrial profits. These developments underscore the complexity of the global economic and trade environment. 

United States: 

• The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate to a range of 3.75% – 4.00%. 
• Trump and Xi agreed to extend the tariff truce for one more year. 
• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in six months. 
• Earnings season continues to show strength, with S&P 500 earnings growing about 10% this quarter. 

Europe

• The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key rate at 2%. 
• Germany’s economy stagnated due to weaker exports and ongoing global trade pressures, despite a slight improvement in business sentiment. 

Japan

• The government highlighted a moderate recovery supported primarily by capital spending. 
• Caution persists due to risks linked to U.S. trade policy. 

China:

• Industrial profits rose 21.6% YoY in September, the fastest pace since November 2023. This reflects better capacity utilization. 

Brazil

• The U.S. Senate approved a bill to revoke tariffs on Brazil by lifting the national emergency declaration issued in July. 

Mexico:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.3%YoY in 3Q25. 
• According to President Sheinbaum, the United States extended the negotiation period to avoid the implementation of a 30% tariff. 

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it.” – Albert Einstein 

Key Upcoming Events 

• U.S.: ISM Manufacturing – Nov 3. 
• U.S.: ISM Services & employment-related data (tentative) – Nov 5-7. 

Monitor

Week: October 13–17 

Markets showed a mix of recovery signs and new challenges, driven by trade tensions, monetary policy decisions, and corporate earnings. 

United States 

• Tensions with China escalated following new statements from President Trump. 
• Chair Powell suggested the end of the tightening cycle, opening the door to potential rate cuts. 
• Banks reported solid earnings, though volatility persists among regional banks. 

Europe 

• German investor confidence rose less than expected. 
• The U.K. economy grew 0.1% in August, but with downward revisions to prior data. 
• The IMF urged the Bank of England to remain cautious, as inflation is expected to stay the highest in the G7. 

Asia 

• In China, exports rose 8.3% year-over-year in September, the fastest pace in six months. 
• Inflation fell again (-0.3%), reflecting weak domestic demand and ongoing trade tensions. 
• Producer prices dropped 2.3% annually. 

Latin America 

• In Brazil, the economy expanded 0.4% in August, below expectations. Analysts expect a deeper slowdown as monetary policy remains tight. The Central Bank maintained its benchmark rate at 15%. 
• In Mexico, the IMF projects a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP for 2025 — the highest since 2000. The government is assessing potential tariff adjustments for 2026, depending on U.S.–China trade developments. 

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• China: GDP, industrial production, and retail sales data — October 20 
• United States: Consumer prices and new home sales — October 24 

Monitor: 

Week October 6–10 

Markets opened October with mixed signals. Attention focused on the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, revised growth forecasts in China and Mexico, and stronger trade performance in Brazil. In Asia, Japan saw a historic political shift with the election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the ruling party, while Europe faced renewed political instability. 

United States: 

• The government shutdown remains unresolved. 
• Gold surpassed $4,000 amid political and fiscal uncertainty. 
• The Fed signaled openness to rate cuts, though doubts persist about their extent. 

Europe: 

• France faced an unexpected resignation from its prime minister. 
• In Germany, exports and factory orders fell. 
• The government raised its 2024 growth forecast to 0.2%. 

Asia: 

• In Japan, Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of the ruling party, positioning her to become the country’s first female prime minister. 
• In China, despite the holiday break, the World Bank raised its growth forecast to 4.8%, and the government tightened export controls on rare earth minerals. 

Latin America: 

• In Brazil, beef exports to China rose 38.3% year-over-year in September, setting a new trade record. 
• In Mexico, inflation rose to 3.76% in September. The World Bank revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.5% and anticipates 1.4% for 2026. 

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’” — John Templeton 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• China: Export and inflation data — October 12–15 
• United States: Inflation report — October 15 

Monitor