Jacobo Taurel

Week of August 11–15 

This week, global markets reacted to a series of mixed developments. In the U.S., President Trump extended by 90 days the implementation of new tariffs on China, keeping the current 30% and 10% levels unchanged. July’s inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.7%, driven by housing costs. 

In Europe, German investor confidence dropped sharply amid disappointment over EU-U.S. trade talks and weak economic performance. Analysts expect the ECB to hold rates steady at 2%, marking the end of its current easing cycle. 

In Asia, Japan’s producer inflation decelerated for a fourth month, while China posted soft data in retail sales and industrial production. In Latin America, Brazil announced a $5 billion support plan for local businesses, while Mexico highlighted a record trade deficit with China and a historic drop in poverty levels. 

“Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.” — Peter Lynch 

KEY EVENTS NEXT WEEK 

• U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits → August 19 
• FOMC Meeting Minutes → August 20 

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Week of August 4–8 

The month kicks off with trade tensions and monetary policy adjustments. 

The first week of August brings key monetary policy decisions, new tariffs, and mixed signals from major economies. Here’s a country-by-country recap: 

• United States: The ISM services index stalled in July, showing higher inflation and weaker employment. President Trump announced new tariffs: an additional 25% on India for purchasing Russian oil, and 100% on semiconductor imports, with exemptions for companies investing in domestic manufacturing. 

• Europe: The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4%, though 4 of its 9 committee members voted to keep rates unchanged. The PMI showed a slight expansion in the business environment in July. 

• China: The services sector grew at its fastest pace in 14 months, driven by domestic demand. Exports jumped 7.2% year-over-year in July, beating expectations. 

• Brazil: The finance minister will meet with his U.S. counterpart as the country seeks alternatives to the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff. 

• Mexico: Banxico cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 7.75%, slowing the pace compared with previous 50 bps cuts. Annual inflation eased to 3.51% in July. The government unveiled Pemex’s 2025–2035 Strategic Plan to make the oil company more efficient and profitable. 

“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.”
— Phillip Fisher 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• U.S. inflation data release – 08/12 
• Speeches by various Fed members – 08/13 

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Week of July 28 to August 1 

Tariff truces, steady rates, and solid growth in the U.S. and Mexico 

Global markets start the week with mixed but constructive signals. Below is a brief country-by-country summary: 

• United States: The Fed kept rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. Q2 GDP grew 3%, driven by consumer spending. An agreement was reached with the EU to cap tariffs at 15%, and the trade truce with China remains in place following new negotiations. Nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, with 73,000 jobs created in June. 

• Europe: Eurozone GDP grew 0.1%, with strong performance in Spain and France. Germany and Italy remain laggards. Inflation in Germany fell to 1.8%, below the ECB’s target. 

• China: Industrial profits fell 4.3% in June, and manufacturing contracted for the fourth straight month. 

• Brazil: In response to new U.S. tariffs, the government is preparing support measures for affected sectors. The central bank kept its benchmark rate at 15%, signaling the end of its tightening cycle. 

• Mexico: Q2 GDP grew 0.7%, beating forecasts. The tariff pause with the U.S. was extended, keeping current rates in place. 

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that matters, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” — George Soros 

Important events in the next week 

• In the United States, the ISM Services Index will be released on 08/05 
• In China, inflation data will be published on 08/11 

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Solid U.S. labor market, trade deals with Asia, and monetary pauses in Europe and China.

Week of July 21–25 

Global Outlook: Stability Amid Mixed Signals 
Recent data and key announcements from both developed and emerging markets reveal a landscape of resilience with a few areas of concern. Here are the most relevant highlights from the week: 

United States: 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to extend trade negotiations with China and will meet with officials in Stockholm. A new trade agreement was reached with Japan, including 15% reciprocal tariffs and $550 billion USD in Japanese investments. Japan will open its market to U.S. agricultural and automotive products. 

• Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in three months, reflecting a strong labor market. 

Europe: 

• The European Central Bank held its benchmark rate at 2%, pausing after four consecutive cuts amid elevated uncertainty. 

• Negotiations with the U.S. are progressing toward a potential trade deal with a general 15% tariff, expected to be finalized before August 1. 

China: 

• The People’s Bank of China kept benchmark interest rates unchanged following slightly better-than-expected GDP data. 

Brazil: 

• Despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., GDP is projected to remain strong, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. However, if negotiations break down, inflation may rise, with projections of 5.2% for this year. 

Mexico: 

• The government plans a new bond issuance to support Pemex liquidity, estimated at $7 to $10 billion USD. Inflation declined to 3.55% in the first half of July, down from 4.32% in June. 

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” —Warren Buffett 

KEY EVENTS TABLE 

• U.S. Federal Reserve announcement – 07/30 
• U.S. Employment data release – 08/01 

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