Week of Uncertainty in the U.S. and Surprises in Asia 

Week October 6–10 

Markets opened October with mixed signals. Attention focused on the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, revised growth forecasts in China and Mexico, and stronger trade performance in Brazil. In Asia, Japan saw a historic political shift with the election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the ruling party, while Europe faced renewed political instability. 

United States: 

• The government shutdown remains unresolved. 
• Gold surpassed $4,000 amid political and fiscal uncertainty. 
• The Fed signaled openness to rate cuts, though doubts persist about their extent. 

Europe: 

• France faced an unexpected resignation from its prime minister. 
• In Germany, exports and factory orders fell. 
• The government raised its 2024 growth forecast to 0.2%. 

Asia: 

• In Japan, Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of the ruling party, positioning her to become the country’s first female prime minister. 
• In China, despite the holiday break, the World Bank raised its growth forecast to 4.8%, and the government tightened export controls on rare earth minerals. 

Latin America: 

• In Brazil, beef exports to China rose 38.3% year-over-year in September, setting a new trade record. 
• In Mexico, inflation rose to 3.76% in September. The World Bank revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.5% and anticipates 1.4% for 2026. 

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’” — John Templeton 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• China: Export and inflation data — October 12–15 
• United States: Inflation report — October 15 

Monitor