Jobs, the Fed, and Growth: A Week of Mixed Signals 

November 17–21 

The U.S. labor market returned to the spotlight this week, while Europe maintained a stable tone and Japan showed signs of cooling. In Mexico, foreign direct investment continued to strengthen. Here are the key topics to watch. 

United States: 

• The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, above expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. 
• The Fed remains divided, and the probability of a December rate cut currently stands at 40%. 

Europe: 

• Inflation remains stable near 2%, and the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at least through the end of 2026. 
• In the UK, inflation fell to 3.6%, potentially opening the door for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December. 

Japan: 

• GDP fell 1.8% annualized in the third quarter, with a quarterly contraction of 0.4%. 
• Exports were the main drag, reflecting a weaker external backdrop. 

China: 

• For the sixth consecutive month, the central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged. 
• The decision was in line with expectations as the economy seeks stability amid domestic challenges. 

Mexico: 

• FDI grew 14.5% year-over-year from January to September, surpassing $40 billion. 
• Economic activity showed no change in October, both month-over-month and compared with the same month in 2024. 

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• U.S.: Beige Book release — 11/26 
• U.S.: Thanksgiving Day (market holiday) — 11/27 

Monitor