Global Outlook: Mixed Signals in Inflation and Employment Amid Divided Fed Stances 

Week: Week of November 11-15 

Markets moved through a week of soft economic activity in the U.S. and mixed signals across global regions. Key developments included monetary policy adjustments, moderate growth figures, and relevant updates on inflation and employment. This backdrop underscores the importance of analyzing structural trends, not just short-term market moves. 

• United States: The agreement to fund the government through January ended the longest shutdown on record, while the Fed showed mixed views on future rate cuts. The technology sector remained volatile amid valuation concerns. 

• Europe: The U.K. labor market weakened, with unemployment rising to 5.0%—its highest level since 2021. 3Q25 growth slowed, reinforcing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. The eurozone economy continued to expand at a modest pace in the third quarter. 

• Japan: The Bank of Japan reiterated that it aims for moderate inflation supported by wage growth and improving economic conditions, in line with the government’s broader growth strategy. 

• China: Producer prices fell 2.1% year over year—less than expected—while consumer inflation rose 0.2%, reversing two months of declines. Industrial production and retail sales also delivered weak readings. 

• Brazil: Monthly inflation rose 0.09%, helped by lower electricity tariffs, while the annual figure dropped to 4.68%. The central bank is preparing additional regulations to address the increase in cyberattacks. 

• Mexico: Industrial activity fell 3.3% in September, marking seven consecutive months of contraction. Banxico expects inflation to converge to 3% by 3Q26 and anticipates only limited impact from new taxes. 

“We don’t prognosticate macroeconomic factors; we’re looking at our companies from a bottom-up perspective on their long-run prospects of returning.” – Mellody Hobson 

Key Upcoming Events:  

• United States: Industrial production – 11/18. 
• United States: Federal Reserve minutes – 11/19. 

Monitor